Every NBA free agent signing is a gamble, but especially established players who command high salaries but could be fading out of their prime. Here are the three biggest high-risk, high-reward free agents on the market.
The NBA playoffs are winding down, and free agency is rapidly approaching. This summer, there will be a number of intriguing free agents on the market. These three players carry the largest boom or bust potential. They can help a team contend for a title, but due to various factors (injuries, age, etc.), they also carry significant risk.
Biggest high-risk, high-reward NBA free agents: 3. James Harden, Philadelphia 76ers
First off, I need to establish something. James Harden remains an elite NBA player. With the Philadelphia 76ers, he became a pass-first point guard. In 2022-23, he led the league in assists per game (10.7), while shooting an efficient 38.5 percent from 3. Despite his selfless approach, he still flashed the ability to step in as a lead scorer, if required; he averaged 21.0 points per game.
If his game stays at his level, he is absolutely worth a max contract. However, that is far from a guarantee. He will be 34 years old next season, and he has a mixed history regarding his conditioning.
As he ages, Harden's playmaking and shooting ability should not be altered, but will he maintain the explosiveness (or motivation) to be an efficient 20+ point per game scorer over a four-year deal? That is definitely a gamble, but given his upside, it is well worth taking.
Biggest high-risk, high-reward NBA free agents: 2. Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks
Over the last decade, Khris Middleton has been one of the most impactful two-way wings in the NBA. Since entering the league in 2012-23, he has knocked 1,267 3-pointers at a 38.8 percent clip.
The three-time All-Star has been a vital piece of the Bucks' recent success. Since 2018-19, the Milwaukee Bucks have posted the best winning percentage in the NBA (69.3). During their 2021 championship run, he averaged 23.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 1.5 steals.
However, he suffered a knee injury in the 2022 playoffs. He missed the rest of the postseason. During the offseason, he also underwent surgery to repair a torn ligament in his wrist.
Coming off the injuries, Middleton's numbers were down this season. In 33 games, he averaged 15.1 points per game, while shooting 31.5 percent from 3 (his lowest mark since his rookie season). Yes, that is a small sample size, but it is still alarming for the 31-year-old max contract candidate.
Middleton should receive a valuable, long-term deal. He has been the second option on a championship team, and his skill set is perfectly tailored for the modern game. Nevertheless, there is a risk that his production does not bounce back.
Biggest high-risk, high-reward NBA free agents: 1. Brook Lopez, Milwaukee Bucks
Another Buck makes the list here. Lopez is coming off a phenomenal season, in which he averaged 15.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks. His unique skillset makes him an extremely valuable player. In 2022-23, he led the league in total blocks (193) and shot 37.4 percent from deep.
At age 35, he does carry significant risk, though. How long can he continue to play at this level? There is not an extensive history of NBA centers playing at a borderline All-Star level in their late 30s.
Regardless, Lopez should receive plenty of interest in free agency. Re-signing him will be a big priority for the Bucks, as they attempt to make another finals run. In addition, the Houston Rockets are interested in him, according to The Athletic's Kelly Iko.
If he signs a long-term contract, the third and/or fourth year will carry real risk.