Things aren't turning around for the St. Louis Cardinals and the Atlanta Braves should be ready to take advantage of that at the MLB Trade Deadline.
One of the biggest potential hurdles for the Atlanta Braves at the upcoming MLB Trade Deadline is the simple lack of sellers that could be out there. Sure, there are obvious candidates like the Oakland A's, Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers and, sadly, usual suspects.
With so many divisions simply not looking good overall, though, teams that would be well out of playoff contention otherwise are still in the mix. The St. Louis Cardinals, however, appear as if they might shockingly be falling into a position where they could end up joining the list of sellers. The team is now 12 games under .500 and falling dangerously out of the postseason race.
Given the expectations around the Cardinals entering the season, that should now be one of the first places the Braves look at the MLB Trade Deadline. They have more obvious talent that could help Atlanta's World Series chances outside of the other teams in the seller category and have players who fill the Braves' biggest needs. Although, not every potential trade target is worth going after.
Taking all of that into account, let's take a look at three Cardinals who should be Braves trade targets and two players who Atlanta should avoid at the deadline.
Braves Rumors: Trade target No. 3 from Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery, LHP
The jury is still out on AJ Smith-Shawver, the Braves' 20-year-old top prospect who just made his first MLB start and has looked good in two outings in the big leagues overall. Of course, he started the year in Single-A, so there could be a desire within the organization to keep using some kid gloves with, well, the kid.
All of that still points to the biggest need for Atlanta that Alex Anthopoulos and the front office should try to upgrade at the trade deadline. Max Fried should be back soon but Kyle Wright's return is less certain, leaving rotation depth and perhaps the fifth starter role in flux for this team.
The Cardinals have a number of options to remedy that, though, one of which is the southpaw they traded for at the deadline a year ago, Jordan Montgomery.
Look past Montgomery's 3-7 record and you can see that he's been far better than that would indicate this season. Though he's not been as good as he was at the end of last year, he's still posted a solid 3.88 ERA and 1.33 WHIP and his underlying numbers regarding FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggest he's not getting lucky either.
Adding another lefty to the rotation with Fried could be crucial for the Braves' playoff push and, with Montgomery in the final year of club control with no extension in place, he could be a nice rental option to fill the void in the rotation.
Braves Rumors: Trade to avoid with Cardinals – Tyler O'Neill, OF
Early in the season, even before things started to turn truly sour for the Cardinals, there was buzz that outfielder Tyler O'Neill could be on the trade block at the deadline.
The 27-year-old O'Neill still has the 2024 season under club control. Having said that, he has fallen out of favor with Oli Marmol and others in the organization, it seemed, while also being part of a crowded position group in the Cardinals system. Thus, a player who hit .286 with a .912 OPS just two years ago would seemingly be a phenomenal trade chip for St. Louis to dangle out there.
It's since become a much more complicated situation with O'Neill, though. He went on the IL with a back injury in early May. While it was only supposed to be roughly a 10-day stint, he has not returned to the lineup as an issue with his back has been problematic and slow to recover from.
That injury is obviously part of the reason that the Braves shouldn't bite, even if O'Neill does return to the lineup soon. But what's more important for Atlanta is that O'Neill simply hasn't produced in any other season like he did in 2021. He hit just .228 with a .700 OPS last season and then only .228 with a .620 OPS in 29 games this year.
For a player who has been dealing with injuries and who's perhaps biggest value on the field is tied to what he hasn't done in 1.5 seasons, even if the Braves look to upgrade the outfield depth, O'Neill is too risky of an option for the club to consider at the trade deadline.
Braves Rumors: Trade target No. 2 from Cardinals – Dylan Carlson, OF
For years, there has been palpable excitement about what Dylan Carlson could be in St. Louis. He was long considered one of the top prospects in the organization. But while the 24-year-old has indeed shown some improvement, the fact of the matter is that he just hasn't realized the potential he was once believed to have for the Cardinals.
This season while dealing with some minor injuries, Carlson has played in 35 games, slashing .250/.322/.398 with three homers and nine extra-base hits to go with 14 RBI. However, he's also not been in total favor with management as we've seen Marmol opt for the likes of starting Tommy Edman over him at times.
Because of the immense outfield depth in St. Louis, Carlson could very much be had for the right trade offer.
For a player who hast started making strides to becoming a more consistent hitter, offers the switch-hitting versatility, and still has three years of club control remaining on his contract, that could be an enticing situation for the Braves to explore. It also might be the right situation for both parties.
Not only could Carlson offer some reprieve and rest for Marcell Ozuna to deepen the situation in the Atlanta outfield, but the pressure would off of Carlson somewhat as well, giving him a change of scenery and not as high of expectations to be a superstar. That could maximize the investment of the Braves in him by making a trade and, ultimately, could set him up to realize his talent on the field in a tangible way.
Given how Anthopoulos has identified trade targets previously, Carlson would make a ton of sense.
Braves Rumors: Trade to avoid with Cardinals No. 1 – Lars Nootbaar, OF
Even amid the struggles for the Cardinals this season, the fact of the matter is that Lars Nootbaar has continued what he did during the World Baseball Classic as a member of Team Japan by looking one of the best young outfielders in baseball. His numbers aren't gaudy by any stretch, but he's continued to be a solid player on the rise.
After middling a bit over the past two seasons, Nootbaar has really broken out by slashing .266/.380/.390 this season and already accruing 1.3 WAR over 45 games, highlighting that he's equally as valuable with the glove as he is a solid hitter. And at just 25 years old and with the outfield depth in this system, that could make him an ascending asset with immense trade value.
That indeed seems to be where things could be trending to. We don't even know if the Cardinals are for sure going to be selling at the deadline but, if they are, we then don't have a real clue if they would want to get the biggest return possible for any of their assets by trading Nootbaar, one of the most valuable pieces in the organization.
No matter what ends up being the case, though, that's a pool that the Braves shouldn't wade into. After the Matt Olson and Sean Murphy trades, Atlanta still has several prospects with value, but much less so than they did previously. Going after Nootbaar would mean likely mortgaging the rest of their system-wide trade assets, which just simply isn't good business when there are multiple holes that could be addressed.
Braves Rumors: Trade target No. 1 from Cardinals – Jack Flaherty, RHP
Early in the season, I would've told you that it would be a bad investment on the part of the Braves to try and land Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline. But as we head into mid-June and about 1.5 months from the deadline, the right-hander is starting to look like one of the best possible Braves trade targets who could conceivably be made available at the deadline.
For the entire season, Flaherty has made 13 starts with a 4.15 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over that span. However, those numbers are heavily influenced by some still-unexplained issues he had early on that resulted in some disastrous outings. As of late, he's been one of the best starters in baseball.
Over his last five starts, Flaherty has given up just five runs over 30.0 innings pitched, which is good for a 1.50 ERA and 1.2 WHIP over that span. He's been downright dominant and returning to the form that the Cardinals have long been looking for with him.
The problem for St. Louis is that the media in the city and around the team have been critical of Flaherty, which he hasn't taken kindly to. Furthermore, he has a bit of an injury history on top of that, all of which has resulted in extension talks not being fruitful as he's set to hit free agency this coming offseason.
As such, the Cards are in legitimate danger of losing Flaherty for nothing. That's a situation the Braves can target to address the aforementioned pitching need and, if things work out, they could also move toward an extension or at least a short-term deal to help solidify the rotation moving forward as well.