The Pirates will sell at the MLB Trade Deadline and the Atlanta Braves should be all over it. Who should be the Braves trade targets? Who should they avoid?
After the first month of the 2023 MLB season, both the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates were atop their respective divisions and looking like part of the best in the National League. In the two months since, the two clubs have diverged in their trajectories.
Where the Braves have continued to roll as the best team in the NL, the Pirates have fallen off of a cliff. So with the MLB Trade Deadline now just a hair more than a month away, Atlanta is looking to upgrade the roster as a buyer while the Pirates are, instead, looking to sell, as reported by insider Jon Morosi.
Perhaps there's a match to be made between these two clubs in a trade? In fact, there is definitely a trade or two that should be on the table.
So let's take a look at three trades the Braves should definitely pursue or explore with the Pirates, but also at one deal that Atlanta needs to be sure that they avoid for one reason or another.
Braves Rumors: 3 trades to make with selling Pirates, 1 to avoid
3. Rich Hill, SP
When Max Fried and Kyle Wright hit the IL almost simultaneously with injuries, the talk for the Braves looking way ahead to the trade deadline was that they would be looking to upgrade the rotation with more quality depth. Now that Fried is closing in on a return, though, that seems like less of a concern than it was by a substantial degree.
Though that may be true, when Fried does return, the uncertainty around Wright's recovery could still put Atlanta in the market for a back-end rotation starter who is performing at a high level, especially if the second call-up for Michael Soroka doesn't go as the organization is hoping.
That's where the Pirates could potentially help the cause by making a trade with the Braves that would send Rich Hill to Atlanta. At 43 years old, Hill is one of the oldest players in the majors, but his performance has remained extremely solid on his one-year contract with Pittsburgh.
The lefty has a 7-7 record on the season with a 4.45 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Those numbers aren't going to wow anyone, but the Braves aren't looking for an ace for the staff. Getting Hill on a rental type of trade to come in and be a reliable fifth starter that can win games when the offense is producing at the level we all know they're capable would be a huge asset for the NL East leaders.
Even better, with Hill's age and contract expiring after this season, that rental could come at a cost-effective price that the Braves front office would surely be intrigued by.
2. Mitch Keller, SP
Hill is perhaps the more realistic option for the Braves to consider at the trade deadline if Atlanta is going to look to the Pirates for an addition to the rotation that they could use. But where's the fun in always playing it safe? That's where Mitch Keller could possibly come into play.
After the Pirates locked up Bryan Reynolds earlier this year and seemed to be on a positive trajectory for the 2023 season, the buzz was that the next extension that they were working on would (or maybe should) be with Keller.
It's not hard to see why given the 27-year-old right-hander's performance. Even with the Pirates fading hard, Keller still has a 9-3 record on the season with a 3.34 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, which shows tremendous growth off of an already-solid 2022 campaign where he posted a 3.91 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over 159 innings of work.
Keller has two years of club control remaining after this season, so the Pirates might not be terribly inclined to trade him, which would obviously drive up the price if the Braves or any other team were interested. At the same time, Pittsburgh could be more motivated to move him given the substantial return they could receive.
Unlike Hill, Keller has the potential to be more than a rental for the Braves rotation, setting them up with a Charlie Morton replacement for 2024 and beyond while also putting Atlanta with arguably the best three-man start to the rotation in baseball with Max Fried, Spencer Strider and then Keller.
Again, it would be a costly, costly move. But at the very least, Anthopoulos should check the price tag to see where things stand.
1. David Bednar, RP
As mentioned, the Braves don't have to swing for the fences at the trade deadline. But if they were going to and choose to address what many have identified as their biggest need — help deepening the bullpen, especially on the back end — then David Bednar might not just be their top target on the Pirates, but the best target for Atlanta in all of baseball.
Through 31 appearances this season in Pittsburgh, Bednar has done nothing but furtehr cement himself as one of the best late-game relievers in MLB. He's posted a 1.44 ERA and 0.89 WHIP on the season, both of which are career-best marks for the right-hander, while also notching 16 saves in 17 opportunities on the year.
While this might be the best year of Bednar's career, his track record is still exceptionally strong. The 28-year-old posted a 2.61 ERA and and 1.12 WHIP a year ago but was better than that in 2021 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Put simply, he's been elite at his job.
For the Braves, though, the reason that a high-priced trade move for Bednar would be prudent is actually twofold. First, adding a top-tier closer to the bullpen would allow both Raisel Igelsias and AJ Minter to move into set-up and late-inning roles that better suit them, which Minter has proven in the past month or so after a tenuous start to the 2023 campaign.
Moreover, Alex Anthopoulos has shown a proclivity for players who have plenty of club control remaining when identifying trade targets, a box that Bednar checks with three years of arbitration left starting in 2024. That's a massive opportunity for Atlanta to set up the bullpen for the future with an already-established dominant closer.
Braves should avoid any Andrew McCutchen trade with Pirates
Coming into the season and certainly at the beginning of the year as well, it seemed as if upgrading the outfield depth and potentially replacing Marcell Ozuna in the left field/designated hitter role was going to be of the utmost importance for the Braves at the trade deadline.
If that were still the case, then the rumors swirling around the possibility of Pirates legend Andrew McCutchen being on the block would make a lot of sense for Atlanta to pursue. He's a veteran hitter who is putting up good numbers and has a good glove to go with that, even at his age. For what they needed, the fit would've been seamless.
Having said that, the Braves no longer need that.
That isn't to say Atlanta couldn't still try to add to the outfield and DH roles by way of trade, but it's most definitely not the priority at this point in the season. Ozuna has gone from hitting sub-.100 to .251 with an .825 OPS while Eddie Rosario has also been scorching hot with an .818 OPS. That pair has combined for 29 home runs, 20 doubles, and 74 RBI on the year.
It's also been rumbling that the Pirates don't necessarily want to part with McCutchen this season, which could mean that luring him away from Pittsburgh for the second half of the 2023 campaign could be costly to the Braves or any other inquiring team. For Atlanta trying to address an ancillary need, paying a steepened price for an older player who would likely be gone after this season doesn't seem like a prudent move to even consider.