It's been a tough season for the St. Louis Cardinals, but all may not be lost, as long as fans (and the front office) come to their senses.
Changes are coming in St. Louis, perhaps just not the ones that the Cards ought to make. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic laid out earlier this week, the quickest path back to competitive baseball for the Cardinals is either trading away some key members of their core in hopes of reloading in the seasons to come, or spending big in free agency/the trade market to fill some key holes on the roster.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals haven't handed out a major free-agent contract beyond Willson Contreras (a modest $87.5 million, by today's standards) since Matt Holliday, and routinely are on the wrong side of trades for starting pitching.
John Mozeliak has made it clear that the front office does not want to trade away core members of this team — such as a Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado — and he "would hope the Cardinals are not allowed to rebuild." That's a bold statement from the president of a team which sits in last place in the NL Central.
Cardinals must accept Adam Wainwright is on his last legs
If anything was made clear by the London Series, it's that Adam Wainwright doesn't have much left to give as a big-league pitcher. He's two wins away from 200 on his career, which would be a tremendous milestone to reach in St. Louis. Yet, beyond that, why is Waino in this starting rotation?
If the Cardinals are serious about turning things around, or at least in seeing what they have from some of their young pitchers, then Wainwright is merely taking up a spot. Yes, he deserves better. Wainwright has been there for several Cards World Series runs. He's one of the stars of his era. Sadly, this is just how the business works.
Wainwright, like so many before him, won't go out on his own terms barring a remarkable turnaround.
Cardinals must accept hiring Oli Marmol was a mistake
St. Louis fired Mike Shildt despite a postseason appearance after the 2021 season due to organizational differences, whatever that means. In his place, they hired a young Oli Marmol.
Marmol was guided to the postseason by a trio of veterans in Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are the next wave, and performed admirably as well.
Now that Molina and Pujols are gone, leaving Wainwright, Goldschmidt and Arenado to lead this team, the lack of a clubhouse presence has been exposed. Marmol is not the manager the Cardinals thought he would be at this point in his tenure, and has instead essentially served as a front office pawn, all the while benching a frequently-injured Tyler O'Neill for a lack of hustle, and removing Willson Contreras from the catcher position for failing to live up to Yadi's standard.
To fire Shildt, a veteran presence who brought the team together, was always a bold approach. It has backfired, as the youthful Marmol, full of energy and eager to prove himself, has instead gone a step too far on several occasions. St. Louis could easily make him the scapegoat this offseason, should they choose.
Cardinals must be ready for a fire sale
It's easy to dismiss this 2023 Cards season as just one bad year, but when looking at the makeup of the roster, it reveals a deeper problem. Nolan Arenado isn't going anywhere, but Paul Goldschmidt is signed for just one more season. The majority of this starting rotation — including both Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty — come off the books this offseason. Wainwright is retiring at year's end. And several outfielders — including but not limited to Dylan Carlson and Tyler O'Neill — hit peak value long ago, and now may only return some spare parts.
The 2024 Cardinals will look much different than this group, and that's for the better. With that in mind, then, why is Mozeliak so afraid of what he coins as a rebuild? Trading assets on their last legs — heck, maybe even taking offers on Goldschmidt due to his contract — is smart business. St. Louis' farm system is rapidly-improving and they can make it even better by adding smart, capable young players to their minor-league rosters.
In all likelihood, Goldschmidt isn't going anywhere. Arenado won't be traded. They will remain Cardinals, along with Willson Contreras and a few others. But this team won't be the same.
The next generation of Cardinals stars can deliver
Once Wainwright, Flaherty, Montgomery, Arenado and Goldschmidt leave, the next generation of Cardinals stars can finally take hold. Jordan Walker has already proven he's the real deal this season, starting his career on an incredible hit streak.
In just a few short years, the likes of Tink Hence and Masyn Winn are expected to make the major leagues. Both are top-100 prospects, and just over the age of 20. Hence, for one, has been compared to some of the great aces of his time.
"He's 20 years old and throws four pitches, all of which are average or above, and he's a strike-thrower with command. I saw him in the past when he first signed as a second-rounder in 2020, and he was interesting then. Now, he looks like he's got a chance to be on the fast track," one scout told The Athletic's Zach Buchanan.
As I mentioned a few weeks ago, "Hence's fastball velocity sits around 94-98 MPH, and he offers up three breaking pitches, including a wicked changeup and curveball. If he continues to progress, he could be the Cardinals ace of the future, and boy do they need one."
Winn, on the other hand, should fill a position of need on the Cards infield when the time comes. Whether he stays at shortstop or moves to second or third remains to be seen, but his bat is one St. Louis will want in the lineup.