The Trail Blazers and Heat have reached an impasse on a Damian Lillard trade. What are the pros and cons for the Blazers of pushing a deal through?
It is no secret that Damian Lillard wants to be traded to the Miami Heat, but is that the right move for the Portland Trail Blazers?
It is a difficult question for general manager Joe Cronin and Portland's front office, as they try to balance maximizing their young roster and honoring the request of one of the greatest players in franchise history.
The Heat's offer is limited by the Stepien Rule. They are required to own at least one first-round pick in every other draft. Their 2025 first-round pick is owned by the Oklahoma City Thunder. It is lottery protected, and if not conveyed, it becomes unprotected in 2026. This limits their ability to trade their first-round picks from 2024 to 2027.
As a result, the most the Heat can offer the Blazers is guards Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry, wings Caleb Martin, Nikola Jovic, and Jaime Jaquez Jr., two first-round picks (2028, 2030), and three first-round swaps (2024, 2027, 2029).
Let's take a deep dive into Portland's conundrum. Here are three reasons why the Blazers should trade Lillard to the Heat and two reasons why they should not.
Reasons the Blazers should trade Damian Lillard to the Heat: 1. Honor his loyalty
Despite the recent discourse, Lillard's loyalty to the franchise remains admirable. The All-NBA guard played 11 seasons for the Blazers. Lillard was not surrounded by stars in Portland. In fact, his last All-Star teammate was LaMarcus Aldridge in 2014-15. Despite outside pressure, he chose to stay loyal to the team that drafted him. Honoring him on the way out would be a nice gesture by the organization.
Trading Lillard to his desired destination would also send a positive message to agents and players around the league. It would show that Portland takes care of their star players. Conversely, going against Lillard's request could build a negative perception of the front office.
Reasons the Blazers should trade Damian Lillard to the Heat: 2. Avoid dragging this out any longer
This one is simple. As long as the Lillard situation is unresolved, it will continue to be a distraction for the organization. We have seen this phenomenon in recent years (James Harden – Houston, Anthony Davis – Pelicans).
The Heat trade is a clear path to a resolution. Moving Lillard would allow the Blazers to fully hand over the keys to the franchise to their young core (Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe). It would also end the media circus and allow the team to focus on basketball.
The deal would give them a fun young team to build around and plenty of future assets to plan around as they build the next iteration.
Reasons the Blazers should trade Damian Lillard to the Heat: 3. The new CBA
The NBA implemented a new CBA, and it will drastically change roster management. In particular, the new deal will make superstar trades more difficult. The CBA establishes a second tax apron ($17.5 million over the luxury tax). Second-apron teams cannot trade their first-round draft picks seven years out, and they cannot send out players in a sign-and-trade. Most importantly, they cannot aggregate salaries in trades, beginning in 2024. For instance, a team could no longer trade two players making $15 million each for one player making $30 million.
Under the new guidelines, 10 teams would fall into the second tax apron, per Spotrac: Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, Philadelphia 76ers, Denver Nuggets, Cleveland Cavaliers, Milwaukee Bucks, and Miami Heat.
Moving forward, this will hinder the market value for superstars on the trade market, as contenders' ability to be buyers will be limited. In one year, the Heat, Clippers, Bucks, and 76ers would all face major limitations to facilitating a Lillard trade, which would obviously lower his value.
In addition, teams could become more hesitant to part with first-round picks moving forward, as building through the draft becomes more appealing.
There is an argument that trading Lillard this summer is maximizing his trade value.
Reasons the Blazers shouldn't trade Damian Lillard to the Heat: 1. Portland can still compete
Hear me out for a second. Last season, the Blazers struggled with injuries, but when healthy, they showed glimpses of potential.
With Lillard on the floor, the Blazers outscored opponents by 12.1 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. That was the eighth-highest mark in the NBA (minimum 800 minutes).
The revamped starting lineup of Lillard, Simons, Matisse Thybulle, Jerami Grant, and Jusuf Nurkic is a talented unit. Lillard, Simons, and Grant all average 20+ points per game, and Thybulle is an All-NBA defender.
However, the bench was a big problem. Last season, Portland's second unit ranked 28th in the NBA in total plus-minus (-920). Deploying No. 2 overall pick Scoot Henderson in a sixth-man role would change that equation. The 19-year-old guard would be an instant mismatch against opposing benches and can play minutes alongside Lillard or Simons.
Lillard's frustrations are warranted, but the supporting cast of Simons, Grant, Henderson, Sharpe, Thybulle, and Nurkic might be the best of his career. Remember, he made the Western Conference Finals starting alongside CJ McCollum, Maurice Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Enes Kanter.
Riding the situation out might be the best outcome for both parties here. Right now, Lillard returning to the Blazers appears to be a longshot, but remember, the Brooklyn Nets were able to get Kevin Durant to return to the team last season. On-the-court success is a real possibility, and it could be able to dissolve this standoff.
Reasons the Blazers shouldn't trade Damian Lillard to the Heat: 2. An underwhelming return
How valuable are the Miami picks? Since 2008, their first-round pick has landed in the top 10 only once (when they selected Justise Winslow with the 10th overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft). During that span, they have produced the third-best record in the NBA (704-491).
Over the years, the Heat have managed to find many undrafted role players, including Udonis Haslem, Tyler Johnson, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent.
Furthermore, Miami remains one of the biggest free-agent destinations in the league, as they have an established history of landing All-Stars (Lowry, Jimmy Butler, LeBron James, Chris Bosh).
The Heat have been a consistent contender without major draft capital. Why should we expect that to change? If the Heat follow their established pattern, the Blazers will have traded Lillard for a package of mid-to-late first-round picks. That would be a very disappointing outcome.
Given all the factors, the Blazers would be wise to hold off on trading Lillard to the Heat.
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