These Steelers breakout candidates could be in line for big years in the 2023 season, but one player in Pittsburgh will fall short of expectations.
Mike Tomlin maintained his remarkable streak of not having a losing season last year as the Pittsburgh Steelers finished at 9-8. But it's difficult to feel wholly good about that when the club still fell short of making the playoffs.
It's clear that the Steelers front office felt the same after the way they smartly but aggressively went about their offseason, adding vigorously to a leaky secondary, taking two big swings to improve the offensive line, and adding several other impact players on both sides of the ball.
With the roster changes, there are indeed high hopes for Pittsburgh in the 2023 season. And if these Steelers breakout candidates can outplay expectations as I expect them to, the club should live up to those high hopes — even if one player in particular is primed to disappoint the fan base.
Steelers breakout candidate No. 3: Keeanu Benton, NT
It's a bit of cheating to call for a rookie to be a breakout candidate, but there are always exceptions. And with what the Steelers' second-round pick could be capable of in the middle of the defensive front in his maiden NFL campaign, he's definitely an exception in my book.
Even as a nose tackle for much of his career at Wisconsin, Benton was still disruptive with 7.0 sacks and 15.0 tackles for loss over his junior and senior seasons (24 games). But when you turn on the tape, you see a highly explosive player for someone who is in a 6-foot-4, 317-pound frame, a player who, with NFL coaching, could be an absolute force on the interior.
After the Steelers drafted Benton, Chris Adamski of Trib Live compared the newcomer to former Steeler Javon Hargrave in terms of what fans can expect as a rookie, but perhaps even better. Hargrave was a key part of the defensive line in a rotational role immediately, but with Benton after experience at Wisconsin should be more polished and play an even bigger part on the defensive line.
Particularly with Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, among others, demanding so much attention around Benton, expect the rookie to be a force clogging up lanes against the run but really breaking out with 5-6 sacks in his first NFL campaign as he comes into his own as a true game-wrecker on the interior.
Steelers breakout candidate No. 2: Kenny Pickett, QB
It was basically a foregone conclusion that Kenny Pickett would end up as the starting quarterback in Pittsburgh after being a first-round pick in the 2022 draft, the only signal-caller taken in the first 32 selections. That indeed came to fruition with Pickett taking over midway through Week 4 and never looking back — though he did miss essentially two games after ending up in concussion protocol.
There were ups and downs throughout Pickett's rookie season, to be sure. The numbers were fine, throwing for 2,404 yards with seven touchdowns but nine interceptions on 6.2 yards per attempt while completing 63.0% of his throws in 13 games played. He also rushed for 237 yards and three scores as well.
Having said that, Pickett drew plenty of criticism for not moving the ball downfield enough, bailing out of the pocket erratically, and simply looking like a rookie. With the situation the Steelers have now built around their quarterback, though, it could be like a whole new player in the 2023 season.
The biggest factor is the offensive line improvements as guard Isaac Seumalo was signed in free agency with Broderick Jones being selected in the first round. Pickett seemed to get happy feet at times in the pocket because of a lack of faith in the O-line, which resulted in some poor decision-making. With more time, he should not only feel more comfortable, but will have more time to let his receivers work.
That's another thing working in Pickett's favor, too. Diontae Johnson and George Pickens were quite good a year ago, but now they've added Allen Robinson II and have hopes for Calvin Austin III too. That group should put their quarterback in a great position to succeed.
All told, this is all pointing toward Kenny Pickett making a sophomore leap after being so hot-and-cold as a rookie. The situation is right and, unless the Steelers made a mistake pursuing Ben Roethlisberger's successor, the 2022 first-rounder should establish himself as a top-half starting quarterback in the NFL this season.
Steelers breakout candidate No. 1: Allen Robinson II, WR
Okay, it's probably a bit unfair to call Allen Robinson II, who the Steelers pulled off a coup of a trade for this offseason, a breakout candidate. But re-breakout candidate has a little bit less of a ring to it, though that's the more apt descriptor of what the wide receiver could be for the Pittsburgh offense in the 2023 season.
Robinson is coming off of two of the worst seasons in his NFL career — a career, mind you, that has seen him spend ample time with Blake Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky throwing him the football. Last season, his lone year with the LA Rams, Robinson played in 10 games, hauling in just 33 receptions on 52 targets for 339 yards and three touchdowns. Over the past two seasons in 22 games, he has just 71 receptions for 749 yards and four touchdowns.
For a player who has three 1,000-yard receiving seasons to his credit, that's quite the fall from grace. But there's reason to believe that things could turnaround in this situation with Pittsburgh.
Not only will Pickett's own breakout year help revive Robinson's career, but the wideout was actually not as bad as you might believe in 2022. As Blaine Grisak of Turf Show Times pointed out, Robinson actually ranked 28th in the NFL in terms of open percentage (the rate at which a receiver got open when running a route). Unfortunately, an awful Rams offensive line limited the good opportunities that the wideout saw to actually get the ball.
With the improvements to the Steelers offensive line, Pickett's progression, and a deep core of weapons around Robinson, if he can maintain that level of route-running and getting open, he could be in line for something close to his fourth 1,000-yard season.
Patrick Peterson will disappoint in his first year with the Steelers
One of the marquee free agents that the Steelers added this offseason was former first-round pick and three-time All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson, who had spent the last two seasons with the Minnesota Vikings after a 10-year run with the Arizona Cardinals.
Pittsburgh signed Peterson to a two-year contract, though with a potential out after this season, worth up to $14 million. And on the surface, that might seem like a steal considering that the 33-year-old cornerback enjoyed a bounce-back year with the Vikings in 2022, grading out as the 12th-best player at the position according to PFF (subscription required).
That all looks great right? And it should, but there should also be some trepidation about what Peterson is actually going to deliver in the 2023 season.
Perhaps the biggest concern is that, over the last four seasons, his great showing a year ago is an outlier. He posted an 82.5 coverage grade from PFF in the 2022 season, but had not graded out higher than 64.3 in any of the previous three years.
When you then factor in that Peterson is now 33 years old, it's hard to imagine that he's going to get any better at this point. Subsequently, there's a risk that his great campaign in his final year with Minnesota is actually an outlier for the player he is at this point.
There's a chance this is a bad read on the situation and that Peterson has figured out a way to make up for any diminished physical gifts due to his age while in coverage. There is also a chance that the Steelers won't be too pleased with their big-name offseason investment.