The Miami Heat's leverage has never been lower in the Damian Lillard trade sweepstakes. Teams should be looking to take advantage of the shifting marketplace.
When Damian Lillard submitted his trade request to the Portland Trail Blazers, it came with a fairly unambiguous directive: get me to the Miami Heat.
In the weeks verging on months since the request was made, the Blazers have stubbornly refused to earnestly engage with the Heat, who don't have much to offer relative to other teams around the league. And, to make matters even dicier for Lillard's camp, the NBA came down strong on his Miami-only rhetoric and threatened punishment if any more similar comments are made.
The odds of Lillard ending up somewhere other than Miami have never been higher. And, while the Heat still feel like the prohibitive favorites by default, one has to imagine other teams will poke around the market eventually. Lillard is coming off the best individual season of his career and he would elevate the competitive ceiling of any team.
Here are three non-Heat teams who should pick up the phone and make their best offer to Joe Cronin and the Blazers' brass.
No. 3 team that should trade for Damian Lillard: New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans' masterfully orchestrated rebuild is about to slam headlong into a brick wall. The Zion Williamson experience has been more negative than positive to date. He has played one majority-healthy season in four years. Off the court, there's a constant hum of purported unhappiness. Does he want to be there? Do the Pelicans even want him there?
Before it all goes south, David Griffin should do everything in his power to salvage what is an undeniably talented group. Williamson has been a top-20 NBA player whenever he's actually on the floor. Brandon Ingram is a bonafide star with the perfect modern skill set. CJ McCollum rocks. Trey Murphy is on the come up. Herb Jones is perennially All-Defense. It's a special group.
Adding Lillard to the mix would give the Pelicans a real shot at contending in the West. New Orleans has more draft picks than every team except OKC and enough young assets to tempt Portland without offering core pieces. Assuming Zion can just make it to the playoffs, New Orleans would — on paper — have to be considered one of the primary contenders in the West.
Lillard would love to re-team with McCollum, who he remains close with. Zion and Lillard would drive defenses silly. Lillard is the best deep-range shooter outside Golden State; Zion is a walking paint touch who collapses the defense like a rock falling through a wet paper towel. It's impossible to guard on paper, and that's without considering McCollum and Ingram operating from the wings or Murphy bombing deep 3s of his own.
New Orleans with Lillard is a genuine potential title contender. There's risk involved, as there is with any star trade, but Griffin should make the call.
No. 2 team that should trade for Damian Lillard: Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are the favorites to win the East next season. There's some lingering uncertainty after last season's first round flameout, but Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday are still on the roster. That's enough to give any group more than a puncher's chance at the title.
Of course, Milwaukee would be foolish not to consider more than marginal changes to the roster. New head coach Adrian Griffin figures to imbue the team with new principles and approaches. Maybe even better ones than Mike Budenholzer, who never could entirely shed his reputation for stubbornness in the playoffs.
In the end, however, the Bucks' inability to topple Miami was roster-based, not coaching-based. The Bucks have long been prone to stalling offensively in the halfcourt. Last season was especially problematic with Khris Middleton operating at half-strength. Hopefully Middleton is back to regular form in 2023-24, but the Bucks should note their propensity to go ice-cold from 3-point range and consider, maybe we should trade for the top-20 player who takes a lot of 3s.
Lillard would completely revamp the offense around Giannis. Those pick-and-roll actions would leave even the best defensive teams utterly confounded. It's like Zion-Lillard on steroids, with Giannis bludgeoning defenses in the paint while Lillard stretches them thin on the perimeter. Presumably Khris Middleton, who can't be traded after signing his new contract, would feast on plenty of open 3s and clean driving lanes.
Any trade would probably have to start with Jrue Holiday, who the Blazers may not want depending on Joe Cronin's immediate goals in Portland. A third team, however, would not be hard to find. Holiday is valued all over the league for his defensive intensity and wonderful personality. If Milwaukee can fashion a trade around the few draft picks and young players at their disposal, plus whatever the haul is from a separate Holiday trade, that could push them over the Heat's current offer.
It's a stretch, but the Bucks need a shake-up and Lillard would make them overwhelming favorites in the East. It may represent his best chance to compete for a championship, which is ultimately his guiding desire — even if he'd prefer to live in Miami instead of Milwaukee while doing it.
No. 1 team that should trade for Damian Lillard: Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers land at No. 1 because this would truly represent a team risking it all. Any Lillard trade to Philadelphia would have to involve Tyrese Maxey. There's a three-team hypothetical built around James Harden floating in the ether for the local Philly optimist, but let's keep it real. Harden's trade value around the league is zilch. If the Clippers are haggling over Terance Mann for a player who finished top-10 on the NBA MVP ladder last season, it's bleak.
In fact, there's a decent chance the Sixers would have to combine the meager return from a Harden trade with Maxey to even pique Portland's interest. The question is, should the Sixers do that? It would essentially leave them with a stripped-down roster built around two injury-prone stars and maybe, if they're lucky, Tobias Harris. It would leave them with minimal draft capital, no meaningful young prospects, and a very tight title window with a superstar who has never won on the big stage.
That's the definition of risky. And ultimately, the answer is probably yes. The Sixers have to give this Joel Embiid thing their best shot while it's still possible and right now, the best shot involves Damian Lillard. He's under contract for several more years with a skill set that should age gracefully. He's also a tremendous complement to Embiid on paper. The Embiid-Lillard DHOs would wreck defenses the league over. Embiid has gotten used to more pick-and-rolls in his time with Harden and Nick Nurse, for all his offensive question marks, is probably well-suited to getting the most out of Lillard's skill set.
If the Sixers can somehow keep Harden on board while fashioning a trade around Harris and Maxey, that's the ideal outcome. It would take every last asset at Morey's disposal, but Maxey carries more long-term value than Tyler Herro and there's a chance Philly's offer could surpass Miami's on the value scale. Harden doesn't want to be in Philly but he also has to perform in the final year of his contract, lest he give up any hope of a big payday next summer. One has to imagine the idea of playing with Embiid and Lillard could motivate him to at least give it the old college try.
Daryl Morey has spent his NBA lifetime married to the idea of star power winning championships. And, more often than not, it does. Much was made about Denver's cohesion and togetherness as a factor in the Nuggets' title run, but it also helps to have the best player in the world. The teams with the most talent tend to win out. Embiid and Lillard would give the Sixers a boatload of talent. Keeping Harden roped in the mix would make them borderline unstoppable on offense. It would also leave Embiid with a lot of messes to clean up on defense, but that's where Nick Nurse's expertise comes into play.
The Sixers would be fully in championship-or-bust territory here, and the bust potential would probably outweigh the championship potential. But, it's the NBA. No risk, no reward. Philly fans would gleefully embrace a compromised future if it resulted in Joel Embiid and Damian Lillard parading down Broad Street.