The Toronto Blue Jays lost their AL Wild Card series against the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday night, beginning what is sure to be a tumultuous offseason north of the border. The Jays are what MLB insider Ken Rosenthal likes to refer to as paper champions for a reason, as they have an incredible roster but in the grand scheme of things always find a way to fall short of expectations.
While Toronto did make the postseason as an AL Wild Card team this year, they ultimately fell short of a division crown, and were surpassed by the Rays and Orioles. Baltimore looks to have a younger and brighter future, while the AL East basement should be as tough as ever with the Red Sox and Yankees looking to improve for 2024.
With that being said, it's fair to expect the Jays roster to look much, much different next season. Ross Atkins has a lot on his plate as he hopes to rebuild this group from scratch.
Blue Jays who won't be back: Manager John Schneider
Perhaps I'm jumping the gun here -- Schneider very well could have been on his way out had the Blue Jays missed the playoffs -- but if a team consistently falls short of expectations, they need a radical change. Why shouldn't that start with the manager?
Yes, Schneider was able to lead this team to the postseason, but there is plenty of talent on the roster. Once Toronto got to the playoffs, they looked borderline inept with runners in scoring position and his choice to pull Jose Berrios in Game 2 ultimately cost the Blue Jays the series.
Schneider is a productive major-league manager, but at some point the Jays need more. He's failed to make much noise in the playoffs with a stacked roster at his disposal.
Blue Jays who won't be back: Matt Chapman
Matt Chapman would be open to a Blue Jays return in free agency, via USA Today's Bob Nightengale, but by no means is it certain. Spotrac estimates that Chapman will earned near $20 million per season wherever he goes, and the lack of postseason success this season could persuade him to leave Toronto.
Chapman has hit just .240 in 2023 with 17 home runs thanks in large part to injuries. For that asking price, the Blue Jays can do far more. Chapman is just a year removed from a far superior 2022 season, so much of the Jays interest depends upon which version of their star third baseman they believe they'd be getting.
"(The Blue Jays) really care about their players, and there's nothing that they wouldn't do for you," the pending free agent said Tuesday.
Chapman, now 30, has a .234/.327/.429 slash line with 44 home runs and 130 RBIs in 295 games for Toronto. When healthy, he can provide a power bat from the right side in just about any lineup. Injuries have been an issue, though, and it's tough to see Chapman staying with the Jays long-term.
Blue Jays who won't be back: Jordan Hicks
Toronto acquired Jordan Hicks at the trade deadline this past season as a rental reliever. Hicks has been solid for the Blue Jays, with 12 saves and a 3.29 ERA to match. However, Hicks will be one of the top relief pitchers on the open market this offseason, and Toronto will have to pay up to retain his services. Previously, Hicks wouldn't rule out a return to St. Louis and the interest appears to be mutual.
Hicks and the Cardinals tried to reach an extension prior to the trade deadline, but when talks fell through, he was traded to Toronto. If St. Louis won't given Hicks what he wants, then perhaps the Jays will. He certainly proved he can handle the workload.
This is Hicks first major opportunity to receive a big payday. The Blue Jays are expected to be active via free agency and on the trade market, it would be easy for a player like the flamethrower to fall through the cracks, especially with top talent like Josh Hader potentially available at his position.
Blue Jays who won't be back: Hyun-Jin Ryu
Re-signing a player like Hyun-Jin Ryu remains a possibility given the uncertainty involving players like Alek Manoah. However, Ryu has pitched in just 16 games the past two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He is a giant question mark heading into free agency despite some moderate success in five starts this season.
If Ryu's asking price remains high -- he previously signed a four-year, $80 million deal in Toronto -- then the Jays would be smart to let him walk elsewhere and use that money to sign a more reliable starting pitcher. That is not a shot at Ryu, as he is very solid when healthy. As MLB.com's Thomas Harrigan noted, it seems unlikely that Ryu will receive a contract close to the $20 million per year he's earning now.
"Now 36, Ryu isn't going to get a deal like the four-year, $80 million contract he signed the last time he reached free agency. However, if he keeps rolling like this he could put himself in line for a lucrative multiyear pact, which seemed unlikely a month ago."
Age and injury status will ultimately play a role in the Blue Jays choice. If we've learned anything about this group, they need players they can rely on in tough spots. Ryu is rather unpredictable thanks to injury, which could be his undoing unless his price comes down significantly.