The Atlanta Falcons have more than enough pieces to make noise in the NFC South. The question is, can head coach Arthur Smith put them all together?
The Atlanta Falcons continue to boldly select the best skill players available in the NFL Draft, throwing caution (and defense) to the wind in an effort the build the most explosive offense possible. With Desmond Ridder soon to embark on his first full season under center, the overarching goal for Atlanta is pretty simple: get back to the playoffs.
Atlanta turned heads with the selection of Texas RB Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 pick in April's draft. Then, Terry Fontenot and the front office pivoted toward free agency with a bigger spending budget than usual. The result was a sudden influx of quality veterans on the defensive end. For the first time in years, Atlanta might actually have the personnel to play both sides of the ball.
Favorably positioned in a very winnable NFC South, the Falcons should hope for these five dream scenarios in the 2023 season.
No. 5 dream scenario for Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts catches eight touchdowns
The Falcons used the No. 4 pick on Kyle Pitts in 2021, a massive investment for a tight end. He was supposed to be a true force of nature, 6-foot-6 with vacuum-cleaner hands and the versatility to unlock Atlanta's offense in new and exciting ways.
Well, he went for over 1,000 yards as a rookie. If any other tight end does that, it's an unequivocal success. He made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. So, fine, it's unfair to call Pitts a disappointment. That said, Pitts has not lived up to the billing of potentially generational tight end.
He was particularly rough in year two: only 356 yards in 10 games with 28 receptions on 59 targets — way too inefficient for a player of Pitts' stature and natural talent. That said, Pitts' biggest weakness has been his complete inability to score. The "best tight end in years" has three touchdowns in 27 career games. Not great, Bob.
Pitts has to get his hands in working order. The Falcons have every manner of running back and wide receiver at this point, but Pitts should be the finisher — the reliable "just toss it up and he'll catch it" option for Desmond Ridder when Atlanta gets in the red zone. That has decidedly not been Pitts' role to date, but it's time for him to turn it around, regain Pro Bowl form, and start putting points on the board.
No. 4 dream scenario for Atlanta Falcons: Top 15 defense
The Falcons have kinks to work out offensively, but there's too much talent for the offense to fail outright. So long as Demond Ridder can remain his healthy and generally efficient self, the Falcons will rack up yards and put points on the board. Their success will hinge largely on their ability to stop the other team from doing the same.
Atlanta's defense has been a disaster in recent years. Last season was particularly putrid. The Falcons' inability to pressure the quarterback and get stops in key moments cost them multiple wins. It doesn't matter how much the offense improves if the defense can't follow suit.
Well, the Falcons spent big in free agency on names like Jessie Bates III, David Onyemata, and Calais Campbell. Unlike the offense, which is full of young legs, the defense is now rooted in veteran leaders who have been around the block a few times. That should help Atlanta gets its act together under new DC Ryan Nielsen.
It's not like the Falcons even need an elite defense to make some noise. Just a solid, league-average defense could make them the most daunting team in the NFC South. Last season, the Falcons were 31st in sacks per game. With the additions made around returning pass rushers Lorenzo Carter and Grady Jarrett, maybe Atlanta can start forcing the opposition into mistakes — mistakes the new-look defensive backfield can capitalize on. Jessie Bates is now one of the highest-paid safeties ever. The Falcons are going to expect results.
No. 3 dream scenario for Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson runs for 1,200 yards
You don't use the No. 8 pick on a running back in 2023 unless you're convinced that running back is a true one-of-one workhorse. Bijan Robinson certainly fits the bill; there was very little controversy around the Falcons' pick. Everyone who watched him at Texas came away with the same impression: this dude is unstoppable.
Listed at six feet and 215 pounds, Bijan is built like a tank with the maneuverability of a Porsche. He can power through tackles at the line of scrimmage just as easily as he side-steps and evades defenders in the open field. He can fight for yards after contact, or he can simply avoid the contact altogether. The Falcons will expect immediate and significant contributions from Robinson.
How exactly Robinson fits in Atlanta's offense will be interesting. The Falcons have been one of the most balanced running back teams in the NFL under Arthur Smith. It was by committee last year with Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson. Atlanta hasn't really been keen to operate with a three-down workhorse like Robinson.
Fewer teams are nowadays, and yet that's really the only justifiable reason to spend your top-10 pick on a running back. One has to imagine Robinson will be the feature back with the occasional cameo from Allgeier and Patterson depending on play type. The Falcons will probably run a lot of two-back looks as well. Patterson is a tremendous pass-catcher. Robinson is taking receiver reps in practice. There's a lot of potential flexibility.
All that being said, Robinson is more than capable of tearing off 1,200+ yards in his rookie season. It's a bit of a stretch to say he could lead the NFL in rushing yards — Derrick Henry still exists, as do Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, and last season's yards leader, Josh Jacobs. But the Falcons expect Bijan to join that class of power-runner sooner than later.
No. 2 dream scenario for Atlanta Falcons: Desmond Ridder, best in NFC South
With Tom Brady officially retired, the title of 'Best QB in the NFC South' is officially up for grabs and the race is wiiiiiide open. Baker Mayfield will take over the starting reins in Tampa. No. 1 pick Bryce Young will be under center in Carolina, Derek Carr will carry Drew Brees' torch in NOLA, and second-year QB Desmond Ridder will get his first full season as starter in Atlanta.
The Falcons have high hopes for Ridder, who flashed plenty of promise in four appearances last season. Atlanta already has the best group of complementary offensive talent in the division. No team comes close, frankly. The defense hasn't been great, but even if it's simply better, the Falcons should be well-positioned in the division.
Ridder's competition for the 'Best QB' title isn't necessarily stiff, but it's not absent either. Derek Carr threw for 3,522 yards with Las Vegas last season and made his fourth Pro Bowl appearance. He's going to put up numbers for New Orleans. Bryce Young is a rookie, but he's the No. 1 pick for a reason and the Panthers will place complete and absolute faith in him to run the offense.
Odds are Ridder won't out-throw Carr or Young. The Falcons are going to run, run, run with Bijan and company. So, if Ridder falls behind in the yardage and touchdown categories, what exactly does this "Best QB" season look like for the 23-year-old?
It comes down to efficiency. Ridder has been extremely smart and efficient dating back to his glory days at Cincinnati. He posted a 30:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio as a junior for the Bearcats. Last season in four starts for Atlanta, he only threw two touchdowns but, notably, he posted zero interceptions.
Not many rookie QBs can make it four games without tossing a pick. The Falcons didn't exactly open up the full playbook for Ridder as he learned the ropes, but he limited mistakes and completed a respectable 63.5 percent of his passes. He certainly looked like an upgrade over Marcus Mariota.
So, if Ridder can bump up his completion percentage a couple of points in year two, increase the touchdown rate as the offense ramps up, and still throw fewer picks than Carr and Young are bound to with their respective teams, maybe — just maybe — Ridder the game manager takes over the title of 'Best QB in the NFC South.'
No. 1 dream scenario for Atlanta Falcons: Win the NFC South
Let's participate in some simple mathematics, shall we? Kyle Pitts finally takes on the mantle of top-3 tight end, as every pre-draft projection suggested. The defense makes the leap to respectability. Bijan piles up the yardage. And Desmond Ridder does what he does best: plays smart, mistake-free football in the pocket.
That sounds like a pretty good recipe for success. The NFC South was god-awful last season. The Bucs won the division at 8-9 — Atlanta, New Orleans, and Carolina all finished one game back at 7-10. It was both sad and riveting. A cutthroat competition to see who could get bounced in the first round of the playoffs.
The division hasn't exactly gotten better around Atlanta. Derek Carr and Bryce Young are both presumed upgrades at QB, but the latter is a rookie and the former is Derek Carr, who has accomplished very little of note outside of the regular season. The Saints and Panthers are exceedingly vulnerable. The Bucs are going to start Baker Mayfield at QB; it hasn't worked yet, it probably won't work now.
New Orleans is the "favorite" going into the season, but the Falcons are more than capable of making it a race — even blowing the competition out of the water. Atlanta isn't without its own flaws, but it's hard to overstate the collective talent on offense. Your mileage with the Falcons probably depends on your Desmond Ridder opinion. He's not the most dynamic playmaker in the NFC South, but again, he doesn't need to be. He simply has to set the table for Robinson, Pitts, Drake London, and the rest of Atlanta's weapons to do the heavy lifting.
The defense, again, is the real hinge upon which Atlanta's 2023 season will swing. If the defense remains bottom-five, then we can safely fast-forward to 2024 — the Falcons aren't accomplishing anything. If the defense hits even middle-of-the-road status, however, Atlanta winning the NFC South is more than possible. It might be likely.