The Cowboys have the high-end talent required to make a Super Bowl run, but their season could be derailed by these five nightmare scenarios.
Expectations in Dallas are sky-high for the Cowboys heading into the 2023 campaign. Head coach Mike McCarthy has a roster capable of making a Super Bowl run but they need things to break right if they're going to emerge as legitimate contenders.
Another thing Dallas needs to do is to make sure that none of their roster weaknesses torpedo their hopes. The organization has assembled quality star talent but the lack of depth of the roster could easily become an issue. Here are five nightmare scenarios that could damage Dallas and how the organization can guard against them.
Cowboys nightmare scenarios and how to avoid them
5. Mazi Smith can't stop the run
Drafting a run-stuffing defensive tackle in Round 1 didn't represent good value for the Cowboys front office but he does fill a potential void for Dan Quinn's defense. Dallas struggled to stop interior runs last year and Smith has the potential to give his team an immediate boost in that regard.
Depending on a rookie to perform as a quality starter right away is a big risk for any organization. Dallas needs to ease Smith into the lineup cautiously if they want to avoid seeing him be overwhelmed by life in the NFL. The team should only deploy Smith on early downs during his rookie season to make sure he isn't overwhelmed by the need to improve his pass-rushing technique. Letting him just focus on his strength will be the best way for Dallas to get the most out of their first-round pick.
4. Tyron Smith misses significant time
Injuries limited Smith to just four starts in 2022. Predictably, the Cowboys' offense suffered to protect quarterback Dak Prescott while he was out.
A deeper look at Smith's season reveals that he wasn't overly effective when he did play. He only gave up one sack but his PFF grade of just 58.6 should be troubling for fans hoping for a special season.
It's easy to say that every team needs their star players to stay healthy and perform at a high level, but that statement is even more true for left tackles. Protecting Prescott's blind side is essential if Dallas wants to light up scoreboards next year.
The only real thing the Cowboys can do to help Smith stay healthy is to avoid the temptation to put him through any preseason work that isn't absolutely necessary. He shouldn't see the field in any preseason game or scrimmage. Everything associated with Smith's work before Week 1 should be with an eye toward helping his body hold up for a full 17-game regular season.
3. Age catches up with Stephon Gilmore
The Cowboys front office made a shrewd trade to acquire Gilmore for the modest price of a fifth-round draft pick. He isn't the All-Pro level cornerback he was during his athletic prime, but he's still playing like a high-level starter even as he approaches his age-33 season.
The league is littered with cornerbacks who have seen their performances decline precipitously after hitting the magical age of 30. Dallas knows that Gilmore has bucked that trend to date, but he won't manage to defy Father Time forever. It's reasonable to assume his performance will decline in 2023 due to age.
The key question for Dallas is just how much worse Gilmore might play. As long as he plays like an above-average No. 2 cornerback the Cowboys secondary should play at a high level. If he becomes a below-average option then the delicate balance of the team's defensive back room could fall apart.
The good news for the Cowboys is that they can limit Gilmore's snap count during the regular season. Former third-round pick Nashon Wright is behind him on the depth chart and should soak up snaps whenever Gilmore needs rest. Playing Gilmore too many meaningless snaps will hasten his age-related regression. Limiting his exposure should be a priority for Dallas in 2023.
2. Tony Pollard gets overworked
Pollard was one of the most effective running backs in the NFL last season. Despite that fact, the Cowboys limited his touches by continuing to feed Ezekiel Elliott touches all year long.
Elliott and his bloated contract are gone which is good news for everyone in Dallas. The one issue with his departure is that the front office didn't acquire a proven partner for Pollard in the backfield. They spent a sixth-round pick on Deuce Vaughn but it's unclear whether or not he's ready to play a meaningful role as a rookie.
Pollard is a big-play running back who pairs his home run ability with effectiveness on a per-carry basis. That makes him a tough guy for offensive coaches to keep off the field. It's easy to envision a scenario where the Cowboys give him over 300 rushing attempts as they chase regular season wins in 2023.
That could prove disastrous. Pollard missed the end of last year with a significant ankle injury that the team's medical status needs to be wary of. The coaching staff should consult with team doctors on the ideal workload for Pollard in 2023 and stick to it no matter what.
1. Dak Prescott throws even more interceptions
The Cowboys' offense scored plenty of points last year, but Prescott's propensity to turn the ball over prevented the unit from being elite. If he throws 15 or more interceptions again in 2023 it's going to be difficult for Dallas to be a serious Super Bowl contender.
Prescott's interception rate of 3.8% was the second-highest mark of his career. Dallas needs him to continue to push the ball down the field without putting it in jeopardy quite so often. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is under a lot of pressure to modernize the offense without making Prescott more turnover-prone.
The best thing the Cowboys can do is to improve the protection Prescott receives. Keeping Smith healthy is only one step in that direction. Dallas should also focus more on heavier formations to help provide offensive linemen with supportive tight end and running back blocking.
Letting Prescott get out of the pocket on more designed rollouts could also help limit his turnovers. He's an excellent runner on the move. Rolling him out can also help simplify his reads which should prevent defenses from baiting him into risky throws.
Dallas needs Prescott to be dynamic in 2023 but they also need him to avoid mistakes. Decreasing his interception total is vital to the team's hopes of success.