The Philadelphia 76ers enter the 2023-24 season with a new head coach and a complicated relationship with their star point guard. Nick Nurse has some tough decisions to make.
The Philadelphia 76ers spent the offseason doing a whole lot of nothing. Daryl Morey dominated the undrafted free agent market, but otherwise the Sixers have remained in stasis while teams around the league improved.
One reason for that stasis is the trade request from star point guard James Harden, who made the decision to opt into the final year of his contract after no free agent offers materialized. He will now attempt to force his way to the Clippers before hitting free agency next summer.
Of course, the Sixers are unafraid to take the unconventional approach with star trade requests. Harden is, as of now, expected to report to training camp in Philadelphia and the Sixers feel no pressure to get a deal done in the immediate future. Ideally, the Sixers would love to convince Harden to stick around this season and possibly beyond.
The plausibility of that is up for debate, but let's operate under the assumption that Harden will, in fact, be on the roster when the season starts. Nick Nurse is taking over the job of head coach from Doc Rivers, and the Sixers lost more key pieces than they gained in free agency.
Here's what the rotation should look like.
Philadelphia 76ers starting point guard: James Harden
Harden has done a masterful job of tanking his reputation around the league. He finished top-10 on MVP ladders last season and was an undisputed top-25 player. He dropped 40-plus points twice during the Sixers' second-round series against Boston and he was easily the team's best offensive player during that series.
And yet, here we are. The Clippers don't want to trade Terance Mann for him and the free agency market for a former MVP and three-time scoring champ is nonexistent. The Sixers risked making Harden unhappy to avoid paying him top dollar and now he's requesting out of a situation for the third time in three years.
The engagement level Harden reports to Sixers training camp with — assuming that is ultimately the route he takes — is impossible to know ahead of time. He famously sandbagged his way out of Houston during his first trade request, but the situation is a little bit different this time around.
Harden has diminished athletically over the last three years. He has also made two more trade requests — at some point, it's a 'boy who cried wolf' situation. People are going to take each successive request less seriously. He's also on the last year of his contract. If Harden wants to get paid next summer, can he really afford to show up out of shape and play like garbage? Probably not.
The Sixers should hope Harden shows up willing to at least play passable second-star basketball on a team still positioned to compete in the Eastern Conference. Whatever happens at the trade deadline or next summer will be how it will be, but there's incentive for Harden to commit for whatever time he has left with the team. It may even help him get out the door sooner.
Nick Nurse will presumably lean heavily on Harden for the duration of his remaining time with the team. Harden's still one of the best playmakers in the world and a more than suitable co-star for Embiid, who clearly views Harden more favorably than his last co-starring point guard who demanded a trade.
Primary backup point guard: Tyrese Maxey
Nick Nurse, unlike Doc Rivers, does not rely a ton on his bench. The Sixers already staggered Harden and Maxey in the backcourt last season. That should continue in 2023-24, especially if the Sixers are gearing up to hand primary playmaking duties to Maxey whenever Harden leaves.
Other players who could receive minutes at point guard: Patrick Beverley
Philadelphia 76ers starting shooting guard: Tyrese Maxey
No change here, with Tyrese Maxey cemented as the pride and joy of a perennially depressed fanbase. Nick Nurse has already talked about helping Maxey take the next step as a playmaker. That means more pick-and-roll actions and more opportunities for Maxey to facilitate the offense. Hopefully he has been taking notes on Harden.
The viability of Maxey as a full-time point guard is on shaky ground. His deadly first step allows him to penetrate the defense and create advantages on the regular, but he's not the most passing-oriented player. Maxey tends to get tunnel vision driving toward the basket and he can record-scratch on occasion when asked to make complex decisions with the ball.
Ultimately, Maxey plays his best basketball when paired with another playmaking guard. Harden has been the perfect backcourt teammate, spoon-feeding Maxey open 3s and empowering him to sprint up the floor in transition and use his speed to eviscerate unset defenses. Harden's hit-ahead passes are a staple of Maxey's offensive diet and Maxey consistently benefits from the double teams Harden draws in the middle of the floor, which create seams in the defense for Maxey to attack off the catch.
Defense is another huge concern for Maxey, whether he's nominally the two-guard or he transitions to point guard. He's only 6-foot-3 and while he's a tremendous athlete with a strong core and the heart of a champion, he's regularly out of position. He doesn't have the fundamentals down; that's an area of essential improvement under Nick Nurse, whose defensive schemes are notoriously complex.
Primary backup shooting guard: De'Anthony Melton
De'Anthony Melton was a critical piece to the puzzle for the Sixers last season. Daryl Morey plucked him away from Memphis for dead money and a late first-round pick, which feels absurd in hindsight. Especially with the Grizzlies looking awfully short on guard depth in advance of next season.
The Sixers will continue to lean on Melton as a defensive Swiss Army knife. Nurse is going to love him. Melton can handle the challenging on-ball matchups, but he's equally — if not more — impactful off the ball. He's constantly mucking up passing lanes with his 6-foot-8 wingspan, to the tune of 1.6 steals per game (sixth-most in the NBA last season).
Melton hit 39 percent of his 3s too. He's limited as a creator and he shouldn't be asked to make too many complex decisions, but the Sixers already have their primary creation engines in place. Melton is there to space the floor, occasionally attack closeouts, and make the simple connective plays to keep the offense humming. He was frequently the third or fourth-best player on the Sixers for long stretches of last season.
Other players who could receive minutes at shooting guard: Patrick Beverley, Jaden Springer, Furkan Korkmaz
One of the Sixers' few offseason signings was Patrick Beverley, who joined on a simple one-year minimum contract. He's not much of a contributor on offense these days, but Beverley can still hound the point of attack on defense. He's a good locker room presence and the kind of instigator Philadelphia has lacked in years past. He will probably scrap his way to a role in Nurse's rotation.
We are also approaching do-or-die territory for third-year guard Jaden Springer, the No. 28 pick from the 2021 NBA Draft. He has been almost exclusively a G-League player so far, but flashes of defense at every level, including Summer League, have left fans optimistic about his future. If the guard rotation gets cleared out via a Harden trade, he could have a real path to minutes. The question is, can he shoot enough to stay on the floor?
Philadelphia 76ers starting small forward: Tobias Harris
At long last, Tobias Harris enters the final year of his infamous five-year, $180 million contract. The Sixers will probably explore the trade market, but Harris remains extremely useful and not worthy of a simple salary dump — especially if the Sixers are planning for an immediate future without Harden.
Harris has plenty of maddening traits, but ultimately he's an extremely efficient and consistent scorer who can get you 20 points any night. He's a career 38.9 percent 3-point shooter and his volume has increased in recent years, with Harris showing a willingness to embrace a more refined role in the orbit of Embiid and Harden.
Listed at 6-foot-8, Harris' refined offensive role has also brought renewed commitment to the defensive end. He's prone to boneheaded mistakes, but Harris competes hard at the point of attack and he's versatile enough to reliably guard two through four. He was frequently tasked with guarding the likes of Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown once the playoffs arrived. He probably doesn't get enough credit for his workmanlike approach to high-difficulty matchups.
The Sixers need Harris to continue embracing spot-up 3s, with or without Harden. The 31-year-old is at his worst when he tries to create on a regular basis. He doesn't have enough peripheral vision on drives to the rim and he has a tendency to look off teammates in untimely spots. He can beat closeouts and he's strong enough to absorb contact for finishes inside, but ask him to do too much and it stalls the offense completely.
Primary backup small forward: Danuel House Jr.
This was the plan last season, when the Sixers signed Danuel House Jr. to the two-year biannual exception. It didn't exactly work out, as House struggled mightily early in the season and spent a large chunk of the campaign warming the bench.
He came on strong down the stretch and even earned minutes in the playoffs, but it's not exactly great that House is the de facto answer here. The Sixers let Jalen McDaniels walk for nothing after giving up real assets to get him at the trade deadline, then also let Georges Niang leave. So it's House… and not much else.
Other players who could receive minutes at small forward: De'Anthony Melton, Furkan Korkmaz
Side note on Melton: there's a very strong case to start him next to Harden and Maxey. He's listed as a guard, but he's a traditional wing for the Sixers' purposes and he can defend plenty well in the three spot. If Harden ends up getting traded without another star guard coming back in return, Melton would presumably take over as the starting two-guard.
Philadelphia 76ers starting power forward: P.J. Tucker
If Melton does ultimately start, it will be at P.J. Tucker's expense. Now 38 years old, Tucker is firmly in the twilight of his career. The Sixers handed him a hefty three-year, $33 million contract last summer, but there's no longer a burning financial motivation to start Tucker. If the productivity isn't there, he could get demoted. Especially with a coach less married to the idea of Tucker than Doc Rivers was.
That said, Tucker is still the preseason favorite to start barring a trade of Harden-sized magnitude. He's a dogged defender with a reputation he has earned through blood, sweat, and hustle. Listed at 6-foot-6, Tucker can still guard one through five on a good day. He spent plenty of time chasing the league's best ball-handlers over screens last season and he also shut down Nikola Jokic for an entire half. There aren't many players who can match Tucker's versatility on the defensive end, even at 38 years old.
The offense is where Tucker could lose his job. He shot 39.3 percent from deep last season, but that number is deeply misleading. The volume simply wasn't there (only 1.9 attempts in 25.6 minutes per game) and his confidence was gone. He would frequently record-scratch on open looks from the corner, his favorite area of the court. Too often the Sixers' offense came to a screeching halt because of Tucker's hesitance. He doesn't offer much beyond the corner 3s, so another year of regression beyond the arc will make it hard to justify another full season in the starting five.
Primary backup power forward: Tobias Harris
This is probably Harris' natural position and he will spend plenty of time here. Even if Tucker starts, expect Melton to close games on a regular basis. Harris tends to match up better with power forwards: it allows him to use his quickness to beat slower defenders driving the lane, rather than getting stuck in no-man's with a plucky wing on his hip.
Defensively, this is probably Harris' preferred position too. He's capable of switching around and he has gotten demonstrably better at hanging with quicker players on the perimeter, but Harris is still prone to lapses in attention and slow-footedness in space that can be partially avoided with a move to the four.
Other players who could receive minutes at power forward: Danuel House Jr., Paul Reed, Mo Bamba
When Mo Bamba met with Sixers media for the first time, he referenced his time in Orlando and Los Angeles. Specifically, he referenced his ability to share the floor with another big. While there's valid reason for skepticism regarding an Embiid-Bamba frontcourt, Nick Nurse did like to double and triple up on length with the Raptors. If he sees the path to utility on defense, maybe Nurse gives it a shot. The Sixers aren't exactly swimming with wing depth at the moment, but there are six true centers on the roster. Maybe, just maybe, one or two of those true "centers" ends up at power forward.
The most likely candidate in that instance is Paul Reed, who has already had conversations with Nick Nurse likening him to Pascal Siakam. Reed's skill development has a long way to go before he reaches Siakam territory, but he's traditionally undersized for a center at 6-foot-9 and he's quick enough to guard fours on the perimeter. In fact, Reed's best defensive position would probably be at the four with Embiid providing a backstop at the rim, empowering Reed to gamble and wreak havoc with his activity level.
Philadelphia 76ers starting center: Joel Embiid
The reigning MVP will continue to be the sun around which Philadelphia's offense (and defense) orbits. Nick Nurse has a mixed reputation on the offensive end, but he's going to clear the way for Embiid to dominate with simple actions. The 7-footer from Cameroon has essentially developed into the NBA's most potent regular season scorer, capable of leveraging his strength for a constant parade to the foul line while also displaying deft shooting touch at all three levels.
Embiid is verging on matchup proof. Stronger centers generally aren't fast enough to contain him on the perimeter. Put a smaller big on him and Embiid is guaranteed 15-plus trips to the charity stripe. Bring double or triple teams, and Embiid is better than ever at beating them with a pass (that said, it's still a definite area of weakness relative to the rest of his remarkable skill set).
He led the NBA in scoring last season with 33.1 points on 65.5 TS%, his second straight season with the league's top scoring mark. While Embiid doesn't have the most well-rounded offensive skill set compared to other league MVPs, he's a workmanlike bucketeer who has shown a willingness to expand his arsenal every year.
Embiid happens to have the talent to perennially compete for Defensive Player of the Year. He may never win the award due to the immense burden of his offensive workload — Embiid takes plenty of defensive possessions at half-speed in the regular season — but there aren't many rim protectors who provide a more menacing deterrent at the rim. Embiid completely shapes the Sixers' defense and he should only become more involved with Nurse's complex, dynamic scheming.
Primary backup center: Paul Reed
Even if he scraps his way to minutes at the four, Reed will still operate as Embiid's primary backup at the five. The Sixers matched a partially guaranteed three-year, $23 million offer sheet from Utah to keep Reed in-house. He's capable of blowing that dollar amount out of the water with his impact on the defensive end.
Despite being undersized, Reed has consistently kept the Sixers' defense at a respectable level when Embiid sits. He has been Philadelphia's most reliable postseason backup two years running, and there are flashes of offensive skill development to maintain optimism about his ceiling long-term.
Reed is one of the hardest workers in the NBA. He competes with absolute intensity on every possession and he takes a great deal of pride embarrassing his opponent. He will look to steal lunch money or make the poster block whenever possible. On the offensive end, he sometimes needs to reel in his ambitions a little bit more, but he's a decently skilled finisher around the rim with hints of face-up scoring potential and 3-point shooting.
Other players who could receive minutes at center: P.J. Tucker, Mo Bamba, Montrezl Harrell, Filip Petrusev