Can you imagine what the St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation would look like had some moves gone differently?
The St. Louis Cardinals have made several questionable moves over the past few seasons. The most dubious move from John Mozeliak, Cards president of baseball operations, has come from the pitching department.
While the team is loaded with some talented young prospect pitchers from Mike McGreevy, Cooper Hjerpe, and Gordon Graceffo, their current rotation features some arms that will give pause.
Adam Wainwright is considered the ace and seasoned veteran of the rotation. While he is in his final season as a big leaguer, he's still seen as a leader on the team. He is the go-to leader and not just for the pitchers.
Jack Flaherty had his best start in two seasons on Monday against the Brewers. He finally looked like the ace pitcher they have wanted him to be since he was injured in 2021. After this season, he is expected to enter free agency. While he's said he would like to stay in St. Louis, there is always speculation he would like to go home to California.
Jordan Montgomery is another arm headed into free agency after this season. Miles Mikolas signed a two-year extension before the season worth $40 million. Matthew Liberatore was promoted to the sixth arm of the rotation after having success in AAA Memphis. He had an outstanding start against the Brewers, with Steven Matz and Jake Woodford have been starters, but they have struggled.
So imagine if the Cardinals had made some different moves. They could have a lot less stress from their uncertainty. They could have some young aces to pair with Flaherty. And they could have a couple more veterans to pair with Wainwright and Mikolas.
Let's examine some of the pitchers the Cardinals shouldn't have moved.
STL Cardinals: What rotation could've looked like if front office didn't screw up
5. Lance Lynn
While management thought it was time to move on from the hard-throwing, innings-eating workhorse, Lynn hoped to remain with the Cardinals when he was granted free agency in 2017. Instead, Lynn signed a deal to play for the Twins and was traded later that season to the Yankees. From there, he's played for the Rangers and White Sox.
Except for the Covid shortened 2020 season, Lynn has averaged 200 innings and 200 strikeouts per season. Lynn has been in the league for 12 seasons. He is signed with the White Sox through the end of this season. While a team option exists for 2024, any team looking for a tremendous pitcher shouldn't shy from Lynn. He is 36 but still has decent stuff.
The Cardinals moved on from Lynn, but he could have been a vital rotation member when the team struggled with inconsistent, immature pitchers.
4. Michael Wacha
Wacha's seven seasons with the Cardinals would never be considered smooth. But imagine if things had gone a little differently. Cardinals fans never knew what they would get from one start to the next with Wacha. So while that may have had to do with decisions from then-Manager Mike Matheny, it's easy to play what-if with Wacha.
Wacha was granted free agency in 2019 from the Cardinals. Since then, he's had one-season stints with the Mets, Rays, and Red Sox. This season he's playing for the Padres. In his last start, he pitched seven innings, giving up only a hit and striking out 11 batters in a 4-0 victory for the Padres.
Wacha was close with many of his teammates, including Wainwright. It's easy to see he needed a change in scenery, as he was in a rut with the Cardinals. But it's also easy to play what-if and imagine if things had gone more smoothly. He could still be with the Cardinals as a starter and, much like Wainwright, provide leadership.
3. Marco Gonzales
After much of four seasons with the Cardinals, the team traded Gonzales, then a prized prospect in the organization, to Seattle for their top-hitting prospect, Tyler O'Neill.
Except for the 2020 and 2021 seasons, O'Neill has struggled through injuries. The Cardinals give O'Neill every opportunity to improve, which is excellent. But it also makes you wonder what-if that trade involving Gonzales hadn't happened.
Gonzales has a record of 64-49 over 881.1 innings of work. He's had 657 career strikeouts and a 4.17 ERA.
The deal is what it is now, but what if that deal hadn't happened? How different would both of their careers be at this time? Gonzales signed a long-term contract with the Mariners. He won't be a free agent until 2025. Meanwhile, O'Neill and the Cardinals are still in arbitration deals.
With the Mariners, he's been a mid-rotation arm on a team that allows him to grow and learn. The Cardinals could easily have had him as a fourth or fifth spot in the rotation. The Cardinals did have several young arms in development at the time of this deal and were looking for a young outfield with lots of potential.
Gonzales could have provided a steady, young arm for the middle of the rotation.
2. Zac Gallen
Before his first season in MLB was complete, Gallen had been used twice as a piece for teams to improve. At the time, those teams didn't realize they should have given him a shot.
Gallen was a piece in the puzzle the Cardinals used to get Marcell Ozuna. While that deal was exciting then, it didn't work out well for the Cardinals. The Marlins, however, did flip Gallen a couple of seasons later to land Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Diamondbacks.
This season Gallen is 6-2 in 10 games started for the Diamondbacks. He's pitched 61 innings over the season and has a 2.95 ERA and 70 strikeouts. Gallen primarily uses a fastball that averages 93.6 mph. He has developed his curveball in his putaway pitch. Gallen's curveball averages 82.8 mph with 51.2 inches of vertical drop. That's just impressive.
He's earning $5.6 million this season and will be arbitration-eligible until he becomes a free agent in 2026.
If the Cardinals had not dealt Gallen, he quickly could have become a top-of-the-rotation arm for the club. Considering the start of this season for the Cardinals, having Gallen as an option from the rotation would have been great.
It appears the Cardinals gave up too soon on Gallen. Then again, so did the Marlins.
1. Sandy Alcantara
Alcantara may have a 1-5 record to start his 2023 season for the Marlins, but the fact he won the 2022 Cy Young Award will forever irk Cardinals' fans.
Alcantara was another piece in the Cardinals' trade with the Marlins to acquire Marcell Ozuna. At the time, the Cardinals desperately needed a power-hitting outfielder. The Cardinals went in hot pursuit to acquire Ozuna. He had some excellent moments with the Cardinals, but fans still recall the moment he climbed the left field wall to nab a hit that landed just in front of his climb. That's all Cardinals fans seem to remember when bringing up Alcantara and the Cy Young win.
In 2022, the Cardinals desperately needed pitching due to inconsistency with the rotation and bullpen. Having a pitcher put up Cy Young numbers would have helped down their stretch run when they collapsed toward the end of the season and ultimately in the NL Wild Card series.
He pitched 228.2 innings in 2022, accumulating a record of 14-9 with the Marlins. It's easy to what-if those numbers into how they could have translated to him playing for the Cardinals. But, in 2017, he pitched in eight games for the Cardinals, finishing three games. He gave up nine hits, six walks, and four earned runs, including two home runs. He did have ten strikeouts and similarly struggled in his time with the Marlins before the 2022 season.
Alcantara's results in 2022 do make you wonder if the Cardinals were not using him properly and gave up on him too soon. It's easy to second-guess that decision now. But, even if it were a one-time occurrence, the Cardinals having a pitcher throwing Cy Young Award-winning caliber stuff would have been great in 2022 or any season.
Mozeliak will forever struggle to shake off the results of the trade for Marcell Ozuna, and after Alcantara's Cy Young Award-winning season, it's understandable.