Argentina’s election will be settled in a presidential runoff between Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who defied expectations to snatch the lead in Sunday’s election, and libertarian outsider Javier Milei. It’s the most politically polarizing scenario, and one that investors had feared the most.
With 76% of votes counted, Massa secured 36% while Milei received almost 31%, the country’s election authority said, leaving both below the necessary thresholds to win outright. Massa, 51, and Milei, 53, will face each other in a second round on Nov. 19. Patricia Bullrich, the establishment pro-business candidate, finished third with 24% of votes. Her exit raises concerns about the future of a coalition that until recently was seen as the most likely successor to the ruling Peronist alliance.
Follow the results: Argentina Presidential Election Live Results 2023
The runoff will finally settle the long-drawn out question of who will be saddled with the impossible task of saving a once-rich country on the verge of collapse. It will pit two candidates with diametric opposing views: The enduring Peronist movement — which governed Argentina for most of last 20 years and refuses to die despite its catastrophic economic results — against the radical libertarian who wants to dollarize the economy to kill inflation running above 138%.
Sunday’s results mean Argentina will face another month of volatility as Massa and Milei fight to win the votes needed to reach the presidency. In his double role as economic czar and presidential candidate, Massa has in past weeks cut taxes and increased social spending in a desperate attempt to garner popular support at the cost of accelerating an economic crisis. His first round lead suggests he will stick to that winning strategy.
At the same time, remaining competitive in the race suggests Massa will avoid devaluing the currency as he did the day after the primary vote.
The Massa-Milei runoff was the scenario most feared by bond investors as it prolongs the uncertainty at a time Argentina desperately needs policy changes. Most of Argentina’s international notes have lingered below 30 cents on the dollar in recent weeks, with surging yields that signal a 10th default is looming as major debt repayments resume next year.