Shares in Asia headed for early declines and Treasuries sold off as investors contemplated higher interest rates and the rising price of oil, which traded at a one-year high.
Equity futures for benchmarks in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong all fell after Wall Street ended Wednesday flat, failing to avert a ninth consecutive decline for a widely-watched measure of global equities — it’s worst losing streak in a dozen years. US futures were moderately higher in early Asian trading.
The yield on the 10-year traded above 4.6% Wednesday, the highest since 2007, amid concerns about dwindling crude stockpiles and pressures on consumers. The ICE BofA MOVE Index — which tracks expected bond volatility — hit the highest in a month this week.
Those moves supported the greenback, pushing the Bloomberg dollar index to the highest level since November. The dollar index has climbed for six sessions in a row, its longest run of advances in a year.
“We are at an inflexion point in the economy and the bond market,” Bob Michele, CIO for fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The last 15 years were not normal, we got to a structural low and now we are going to revert to something that is more normal.”
Oil markets were firmly in focus. Dwindling US crude stockpiles pushed West Texas Intermediate, the US oil price, to settle above $93 Wednesday.
Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President, said a potential US government shutdown and the effects of the autoworker strike may slow the economy, requiring less aggressive moves from the central bank.
“If these downside scenarios hit the US economy, we might then have to do less with our monetary policy to bring inflation back down to 2%,” Kashkari said in an interview on CNN.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a handful of other central bank officials are set to speak later Thursday. Data on the docket for release include US gross domestic product and initial jobless claims ahead of the personal consumption expenditures price on Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
In Asia, investors will be closely watching China’s property sector for further signs of strain after the founder of China Evergrande Group was placed under police control. A Bloomberg Intelligence index of developers touched the lowest level since 2011 on Wednesday.
Global stocks also face the risk of further selling linked to a large options position held by a JPMorgan Chase & Co. equity fund. Tens of thousands of protective put contracts held by the fund will expire Friday at a strike price not far below the current level of the S&P 500, creating the potential for market dislocations.
Elsewhere, gold was steady after a run of declines this week and Bitcoin traded above $26,000.
Key events this week:
- Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Thursday
- US initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell town hall meeting with educators while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee make speeches, Thursday
- Eurozone CPI, Friday
- Japan unemployment, industrial production, retail sales, Tokyo CPI, Friday
- US consumer spending, wholesale inventories, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
- ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Friday
- New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% as of 7:31 a.m. Tokyo time. The S&P 500 was little changed.
- Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
- Nikkei 225 futures fell 0.2%
- Hang Seng futures fell 0.3%
- S&P/ASX 200 futures fell 0.2%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro was little changed at $1.0504
- The Japanese yen was little changed at 149.51 per dollar
- The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.3215 per dollar
- The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6350
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $26,308.88
- Ether was little changed at $1,595.05
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.1% to $93.78 a barrel
- Spot gold was little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.