Asia Stocks to Follow US Higher on Rate Optimism: Markets Wrap
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2023-10-10 07:19
Asian shares are poised to open broadly higher, following the lead from Wall Street after dovish comments on

Asian shares are poised to open broadly higher, following the lead from Wall Street after dovish comments on rates from Federal Reserve officials. Oil and gold climbed on the fallout from Hamas’ attack on Israel.

Futures in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia were higher Tuesday, after the S&P 500 erased losses as Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said officials are in a position to “proceed carefully” following the recent rise in Treasury yields. Earlier, Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the recent surge in long-term US bond rates may mean less need for the central bank to tighten again.

At the end of last week, traders had boosted bets on another Fed hike this year as data showed US employment unexpectedly surged in September. That narrative was switched on Monday as central bank officials damped down speculation of another rate increase in 2023.

“The script has changed,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “The odds for another tightening have dropped dramatically since Friday.”

Oil climbed after Hamas’ attack on Israel raised fears of a wider conflict that could constrain energy supplies, while gold had its biggest one-day gain since May on haven buying in the wake of the fighting. The dollar edged lower. Treasury futures climbed, with the cash market closed for Columbus Day.

In Asia, data Monday showed daily new-home sales during the eight-day Golden Week holiday declined 17% from last year, showing there’s no quick fix for a record housing-market slump that’s stifling economic growth and worsening a debt crisis among developers.

Read: Wall Street’s Narrative Gets Lost in World of Hurt: Surveillance

Energy companies led gains in the S&P 500 as US crude futures briefly topped $87 a barrel. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. added over 2.7%. Defense companies rallied, with Northrop Grumman Corp. up the most since March 2020 and Lockheed Martin Corp. gaining 8.9%. American Airlines Group Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. fell more than 4%.

Israeli companies Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. and Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. slipped in US trading. The shekel dropped even after the central bank unveiled a $45 billion support program. Gas prices in Europe soared.

Read: Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodities This Week

The latest Middle East conflict comes at a time of ongoing geopolitical concerns, with markets also facing a period of moderating global economic growth, according to Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management

“Against this backdrop, we continue to prefer fixed income to equities,” Marcelli noted. “We see a better risk-reward profile for fixed income, and we recommend investors consider buying high-quality bonds in the 5-10-year maturity range. We foresee further cooling in inflation and slower global growth.”

The next risk to US stocks could come from fiscal policy constraints at a time when the Fed is still fighting high inflation, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson. The strategist — among the most prominent bearish voices on Wall Street — said while the US government narrowly avoided a shutdown last week, “the lack of a resilient long-term structure that supports fiscal discipline” could have an impact on financial markets.

Read: JPMorgan, Citi Gird For Recession Risk: US Earnings Week Ahead

Key events this week:

Some of the main moves in markets at 7.23 a.m Tokyo time:

Stocks

Currencies

Cryptocurrencies

Bonds

Commodities

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

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