After losing a key starter to Tommy John surgery, the Houston Astros may have to look at the trade market to fill a sizeable gap in their rotation.
A few days after being placed on the 15-day IL with right elbow discomfort, the Astros and starting pitcher Luis Garcia were met with the news that he will miss the rest of this season, and in all likelihood a good portion of 2024 as he undergoes Tommy John surgery. A key part of the rotation, Garcia started off 2023 allowing 12 runs in six games, making for an ERA of 4.00, with a 1.30 WHIP.
Although in the bottom 1/10 of the league in fastball velocity, he improved on getting more swing and misses, and was able to avoid the barrel at a better rate this year, despite MLB not allowing him to do his signature 'rock the baby' windup.
The Astros should look for a similar type of pitcher. Someone on the lower end of value that can be able to induce soft contact consistently to give you 5 or 6 innings per start.
The Astros should trade for RHP Dane Dunning
After being left as the odd man out of the Rangers rotation, Dunning has been used as a reliever this year, but did start one game against Mike Trout and the Angels where he threw five innings scoreless allowing two hits. Dunning is also in the bottom 1/10th of the league in velocity, and is definitely a pitch to contact player, as he has a ground ball rate of 53%, while also holding a Barrel % of 2.8, meaning that he is a player that rarely gets hit hard.
This type of move would be of lower risk to the Astros, as they would only really need a couple of B- to C+ tier prospects. Dunning isn't dominant enough to be valued highly, but his consistency plays in his favor. The one reason that would prevent both teams from doing this however is that they are divisional opponents.
Astros should trade for Mets starter Tylor Megill
Another odd man out, Tylor Megill has actually struggled for the Mets thus far through 7 starts and 35.1 innings.
A trade for the 27-year-old right hander would seem more like a temporary bandage to get by. In the three seasons where he been in the Majors, Megill has never achieved an ERA lower than 4, allowing as much as 19 home runs in 18 games.
This would be a stopgap move as the Astros should use Megill as a bridge to get to another prospect, or if a A+ level trade target emerges as we approach the trade deadline.
Megill is capable of giving 5 innings of 2-3 run baseball every game, but it would be wise for this only to be a short term solution. A couple of low tier prospects would be an idealistic package to acquire Megill.
Astros should trade for Matthew Boyd
Although previously plagued by injury in his career, the veteran left handed starter has been making his regularly scheduled starts every five days. In 30.2 innings in 6 starts thus far, he is playing up to a 5.28 ERA, but I strongly believe the Astros can reinvent the veteran southpaw.
The Astros have had a reputation of reinventing pitchers who spin the fastball well and get good results off of it, and who struggle with secondary pitches. Boyd fits that description. Although not a flamethrower, his BA on the sinker is .167 with a slugging % also at .167. The pitch drops 23 inches and moves horizontal 17 inches. That is fair movement on both sides of the axis. However, he's only thrown the pitch 23 times. As successful as the pitch has been in short sample, he should throw it more and see how it goes.
His secondary pitches are what the Astros would have to develop in Boyd. All of his secondary pitches have batting averages of .270 or above and a slugging % of .320 or above, and that is where most of his earned runs coming off of those pitches. The secondary pitches have a combined run value of 4 runs, while his fastballs have a -2 run value (negative is better in this scenario). His most used breaking ball, the slider moves 4 inches horizontally, and 43 inches of drop. Similarly to the way they reinvented Gerrit Cole, finding a way to add more spin can do Boyd wonders to increase the spin on that pitch, and will hopefully lead to Boyd being able to avoid more barrels.
A possible package for Boyd would not be too hefty, as he is still an injury prone starter climbing up the age ladder.