Best MLB prop bets today (Fade Graham Ashcraft, trust Jose Berrios on Friday)

2023-07-01 02:19

Friday night’s MLB action has some interesting pitchers on the mound, and I’m fading a few of them – one with an earned runs prop and two with a Yes Run First Inning pick.Plus, a familiar face returns to the MLB props column for yet another strikeout prop.Let’s dive i...

Friday night's MLB action has some interesting pitchers on the mound, and I'm fading a few of them – one with an earned runs prop and two with a Yes Run First Inning pick.

Plus, a familiar face returns to the MLB props column for yet another strikeout prop.

Let's dive into the picks for Friday, June 30:

Best MLB prop bets today

Jose Berrios OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Graham Ashcraft OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-185)
Detroit Tigers-Colorado Rockies YRFI (-160)

Jose Berrios OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Jose Berrios has been one of my favorite pitchers to back in strikeout props this season because of his consistency.

The righty has punched out five or more batters in 11 of his 16 starts this season, and I'm trusting him to hit that number against the Boston Red Sox on Friday.

Boston only averages 8.10 K's per game, but the team has struggled on offense over the last week, ranking 28th in OPS and 11th in strikeouts.

This is a gettable number for Berrios, especially since he punched out four Red Sox hitters in just 5.1 innings his last time against them.

Graham Ashcraft OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-145)

There may not be a better pitcher to fade in all of baseball than Graham Ashcraft.

Since May 7, Ashcraft has made eight starts. Here's a look at some of his numbers in that stretch:

12.82 ERA
OPP BA: .386
59 Hits, 14 Walks Allowed in 33.0 Innings
Cincinnati is 2-6 in those games

To top it off, Ashcraft has allowed at least three runs in every one of these outings. Fade him again taking on the San Diego Padres on Friday night.

Detroit Tigers-Colorado Rockies YRFI (-160)

The Rockies and Tigers aren't two teams that you'd expect to be a great YRFI bet, but the conditions at Coors Field, and Austin Gomber's struggles make it my favorite on Friday.

The Rockies lefty has made nine starts at home this season, posting a 8.72 ERA in those games and allowing opponents to slash a ridiculous .337/.390/.646 against him.

In the first inning this season, Gomber has a 7.31 ERA, giving up 13 runs in 16 starts. He's simply been one of the worst starters in all of baseball in 2023.

His opponent, Michael Lorenzen, has also struggled in the first inning, allowing 11 runs in 13 appearances for a 7.62 ERA. I expect someone to score early in this matchup.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.