The Chicago Bulls are stuck in NBA no man's land. Can Billy Donovan discover the path back to relevancy next season?
The Chicago Bulls' season ended with a heartbreaking last-minute collapse against the No. 8 seed Miami Heat in the final Eastern Conference play-in game. The Bulls were a couple minutes away from toppling the eventual conference champs.
Whatever pride was derived from that fact has evidently kept the roster intact, which is probably not the best possible offseason outcome. Chicago made a few nice upgrades on the margins but the core remains intact and it's hard to decipher a path to a materially better outcome than last season.
The Bulls obviously want to contend, but the front office is reportedly prepared to pull the plug if things go south again. Get prepared mentally, Chicago fans, because it will go south. The Bulls have enough talent to feign competitiveness on a nightly basis, but the Bulls' absolute ceiling is a first-round exit. At some point, the franchise has to admit defeat and pivot toward the future.
For now, however, the roster is essentially set ahead of training camp. The star duo of DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine isn't going anywhere and the Bulls furnished Nikola Vucevic with a lucrative new three-year contract. Lonzo Ball's sustained absence is a dark cloud hanging over the organization, but the Bulls will have a potentially useful traded player exception (TPE) to use on free agents or future buyout candidates.
As the Bulls gear up for another run at the middle of the East, here's what Billy Donovan is working with.
Chicago Bulls starting point guard: Jevon Carter
The Bulls gave Jevon Carter a three-year, $19.5 million contract with a player option in the final year. He figures to take over the reins at point guard. The Bulls have more guard depth than the average team, but Carter is the most traditional ball-handler to lead the first unit.
Carter exploded into the national consciousness with his play in Milwaukee last season. He averaged 8.0 points and 2.4 assists on .423/.421/.816 splits in 22.3 minutes per game. The 27-year-old, aptly nicknamed 'Bulldog,' also started 39 of his 81 appearances in place of the injured Jrue Holiday. He was a critical role player for the No. 1 seed in the East.
Now Carter will get full-time starting duties in Chicago. His role shouldn't change much from what it was in Milwaukee. Carter can set the table and he doesn't make many mistakes as a ball-handler, but he's not going to be the head of the snake. Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan will still anchor the halfcourt offense; that's where Carter's versatility as an off-ball shooter and connective passer make him so valuable.
The real highlight of Carter's game, however, is his defense. It's hard for 6-foot-1 guards to carve out a consistent defensive role in the NBA but Carter can punch above his weight class due to his unrivaled tenacity and razor-sharp instincts. He digs in at the point of attack and never relents. Donovan is a defensive-minded coach and he's apt to fall madly in love with Carter's approach. Fans should look forward to the minutes Carter shares with All-Defense guard Alex Caruso.
Primary backup point guard: Coby White
The No. 7 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, it would be fair to categorize Coby White's career as a mild disappointment so far. Even so, the Bulls spent $33 million over three years to keep White around this summer. He's the most potent offensive weapon in the Bulls' second unit, capable of burying 3s at a healthy clip or skating to the rim for acrobatic finishes.
White is a bursty scorer with positional size at 6-foot-5 and the ability to heat up quickly. The Bulls will hope White can progress as a creator for others, but he's comfortable handling the rock and he's a frequent shot in the arm for Chicago's offense, which has a tendency to stall.
Other players who could receive minutes at point guard: Ayo Dosunmu, Alex Caruso
Chicago Bulls starting shooting guard: Zach LaVine
Zach LaVine gets knocked for essentially never playing a meaningful game in his career, and sure — LaVine has never sniffed contention. That said, it's hard to fault a player for circumstances beyond his control. The Bulls acquired LaVine as part of the Jimmy Butler trade with Minnesota way back when. Neither the Wolves nor the Bulls have ever surrounded him with a competitive roster. It's that simple.
Injuries have been a frequent nuisance for LaVine, but he has done his part for Chicago when available. He appeared in 77 games last season and averaged 24.8 points on 60.7 TS%, clearly the best player on the team. LaVine isn't without shortcomings, primarily as a defender, but the list of more potent individual offensive guards is slim.
Despite a slew of lower-leg maladies, LaVine remains a one-percent athlete. He can burn even the best defenders with his slippery first step and he's capable of truly show-stopping finishes at the rim. He also possesses one of the most picturesque jumpers in the game. His pull-up 3s are a thing of beauty.
The Bulls should probably pull the plug and test the LaVine trade market more earnestly, but it's hard to blame the front office for not selling low on a talent of LaVine's caliber. He's probably better than his reputation suggests — largely because the team around him inspires such minimal confidence.
Primary backup shooting guard: Alex Caruso
Alex Caruso made his first All-Defensive team last season despite coming off the bench for the No. 9 seed, which speaks to his brilliance on that end of the floor. Caruso is one of the best sixth men in the NBA and, were it not for the breadth of guard talent in Chicago, he'd probably be a starter.
Caruso isn't exactly known for his razzmatazz. He's special because he does the dirty work, the small things. Caruso is everywhere on defense, always making timely rotations and mucking up passing lanes with his frenetic hands. On the ball, he's built strong with the quickness to mirror the best ball-handlers in the NBA.
Offensively, Caruso doesn't receive the credit he deserves. He's not one for self-creation, but he can initiate simple sets and he's a bankable 3-point shooter (36.4 percent last season). He has a good first step attacking downhill off the catch and he makes rapid-fire decisions in the flow of the offense. As the only ball-handler he may not shine, but when he's able to play connector with multiple playmakers around him — as is the case in Chicago — Caruso is a consistent positive on both ends.
Other players who could receive minutes at shooting guard: Ayo Dosunmu, DeMar DeRozan
Chicago Bulls starting small forward: DeMar DeRozan
DeMar DeRozan continues to do DeMar DeRozan things. The NBA has evolved around DeRozan over the course of his career but he continues to deliberately target defenses in the mid-range, often to great effect. He's one of the best 2-point jump shooters in the league and there is absolutely still value there.
On top of his pristine footwork and knockdown pull-up jumper, DeRozan has made a concerted effort in Chicago to improve his playmaking. He's better than ever at leveraging the attention he demands on drives down the lane to set up shooters on the perimeter. The Bulls do a good job of keeping DeRozan surrounded by shooters and leaning into his unconventional-but-effective strengths. He can bully smaller defenders in the post, torch slower defenders attacking from the elbow or simply get into his iso bag.
There are drawbacks to DeRozan's style, of course. He doesn't take many 3s and he's probably the weakest link in Chicago's defense. Billy Donovan has done a tremendous job of building up the Bulls' defensive scheme but DeRozan is regularly hidden in the corner and kept out of actions despite his positional size and top-shelf athleticism.
Like LaVine, DeRozan has been a frequent subject of the "can he actually win?" debate. DeRozan has been much closer to glory than LaVine back in his top-seed Toronto days, but the Raptors always faltered on the big stage. It's more difficult than ever to envision a true winner built around a player with DeRozan's specific skill set, but he has made an effort to modernize his approach as times change. He was the Bulls' only All-Star last season and he continues to be a focal point of opposing game plans every night.
Primary backup small forward: Ayo Dosunmu
Let's address the proverbial elephant in the room here: Ayo Dosunmu is a guard. He's 6-foot-5 and he was billed as a point guard coming out of Illinois. The Bulls re-signed him to a three-year, $21 million contract because of his guard skills. But here's the thing about Chicago: there are several guards on the roster.
It, therefore, gets difficult to peg Dosunmu into a specific "position." The Bulls are going to run plenty of three, even four-guard looks depending on where you want to peg DeRozan's position (think guard on offense, forward on defense). Dosunmu, Caruso, and White will all defend multiple positions depending on what the evening's matchup demands. LaVine will spend ample time as the de facto "three," even if he's still very much a skinny two-guard. That's the nature of modern basketball, folks.
Other players who could receive minutes at small forward: Zach LaVine, Alex Caruso, Torrey Craig, Dalen Terry, Julian Phillips
Chicago Bulls starting power forward: Patrick Williams
Patrick Williams' career is off to a bumpy start. He lost most of his second season to injury, but last season was an important step in the right direction for the No. 4 pick from the 2020 NBA Draft. Williams, in fact, looks ready to break out in a big way for a Chicago team that will desperately rely on him.
Chicago's current roster simply does not feature very many true wings or forwards. Williams has positional size (6-foot-8) and strength with the ability to nimbly switch one through four on defense. What is most important for Chicago is his ability to handle physically demanding matchups in the frontcourt. Somebody has to guard the LeBrons and Giannises of the world. For the Bulls, that man is — almost exclusively, at the moment — Williams.
The Bulls need to flesh out the frontcourt in a big way but Williams is well-positioned for a stellar fourth season. He's already carrying his weight on the defensive end for Chicago. In his first year back from injury, he played all 82 games (with 65 starts) and was a paragon of reliability for a team in dire need of it.
The offensive progression for Williams will ultimately determine his ceiling. He hit 41.5 percent of his 3s last season, but now the volume has to increase. He has the strength to play bully ball in the post and he flashes soft touch on mid-range jumpers, so there's untapped potential beyond a simple 3-and-D role player. The Bulls need Williams to really lean into the 3-and-D attributes of his game, but Billy Donovan would be wise to throw Williams a few bones as he discovers the full extent of his game at the NBA level.
Primary backup power forward: Torrey Craig
The Bulls would probably feel better about things if there were a few more Torrey Craigs on the roster. Craig is the only proven wing-sized defender in the Bulls' second unit. At 6-foot-7 with broad shoulders and a proven track record playing for multiple contenders, Craig's defensive utility will make him an essential reserve.
At first glance, one might not think of the Bulls as a quality defensive team, but the Bulls were quietly a top-five defense last season. Now the Bulls' major additions — Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig — will only strengthen Billy Donovan's arsenal on that end of the floor. The Bulls lack size, which can compromise them in certain matchups, but Chicago has a ton of intelligent, active defenders who make it difficult for opposing offenses to function.
Craig will help in an area of relative weakness on defense and he hit 39.4 percent of his 3s last season. That's all you need out of a minimum contract.
Other players who could receive minutes at power forward: DeMar DeRozan, Julian Phillips
Chicago Bulls starting center: Nikola Vucevic
The Bulls signed Nikola Vucevic to a three-year, $60 million contract over the summer. That was when it became clear no foundational changes were being made. From a front-office perspective, it's probably better to have Vooch under contract than to lose him for nothing. That said, it's borderline malpractice to run back the same group as last season and Chicago will struggle to find eager trade partners for Vucevic at that dollar amount.
Vucevic is a two-time former All-Star who can still put up numbers. He averaged 17.6 points and 11.0 rebounds on 59.4 TS% last season, a boon to fantasy teams everywhere. He's a better-than-average passer for his position and the Bulls generated a lot of offense out of Vucevic dribble-handoffs.
That said, Vucevic is another relatively weak point in the defense. He can handle physical matchups in the post and there's certain defensive value in ending possessions with a rebound, but Vucevic can't really stick with ball-handlers in space. Opposing offenses make an effort to involve Vucevic in actions that draw him away from the rim and that will only increase in frequency if the Bulls can scrape together a postseason berth.
Now 32 years old, Vucevic is on the back end of his prime — if not fully in the downfall stage of his career. The Bulls could be spending over $20 million on a 35-year-old defensive liability once Vucevic's contract runs its course. That has the potential to not age well.
Primary backup center: Andre Drummond
It's impossible to complain about the value of Andre Drummond on a $3.4 million contract, but it's fair to question the Bulls' general roster-building philosophy. Drummond feels out of place on a non-contender at this point in his career, but he's a vigorous rebounder who provides enough rim protection to empower the quality guard defenders stationed around him in Chicago.
Drummond has a knack for doing a little too much on offense every now and again, but he's an undeniable talent — maybe the best rebounder in the NBA, blessed with unreal strength and supernatural sonar ability on the glass — and the Bulls will rely on him heavily. He may even close some games over Vucevic depending on what certain matchups demand defensively.
Other players who could receive minutes at center: Patrick Williams, Torrey Craig