To start the week, the Miami Marlins will host the St. Louis Cardinals for a four-game series across the Fourth of July holiday. The Cardinals just took two of three from the New York Yankees while the Marlins were getting swept by the Atlanta Braves.
St. Louis is 35-48 heading into this matchup with the 48-37 Marlins.
For Game 1 the Cardinals will send Miles Mikolas to the mound for the 18th time this season. He is 4-5 with a 4.44 ERA in his previous 17 starts. The Marlins will counter with 4-2 Braxton Garrett who will carry his 3.53 ERA into his 16th start.
Garrett was good last time out and is a big reason that the Marlins are home favorites in Game 1. Let's get into the odds for the Cardinals and Marlins on Monday.
Cardinals vs. Marlins odds, run line and total
Cardinals vs. Marlins prediction and pick
Mikolas hasn't been great for the Cardinals this year and his struggles along with their other veterans in the rotation are the main reason that they are last in the NL Central.
However, Mikolas probably isn't as bad as his most recent start when he allowed five runs on seven hits to the Astros. His 4.03 FIP indicates some improvement coming to his ERA, but he does have a 5.25 expected ERA and an expected batting average of .299.
That xBA is in the bottom four percent of all pitchers.
The Marlins are still a good team, a sweep at the hands of the Braves is nothing to be ashamed of.
Atlanta is the best team in baseball, even though it doesn't have the best record just yet. The Cardinals are last place in the worst division in baseball, so maybe we shouldn't really over think this matchup.
I still like that the Cardinals can boast Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt as too horrifying right-handed power bats against lefty pitchers, but Goldschmidt has fallen off from his MVP season last year and only has a .732 OPS against lefties.
The Cardinals as a team are 15th in OPS against lefties and Braxton Garrett has a 3.29 FIP with 92 strikeouts to 15 walks in 81.2 innings. The Marlins are the better team with the better pitcher and are at home. They'll shake off that sweep and get back into the win column today.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change