The Chiefs are riding high on a Super Bowl win. What can they expect from the 2023 season? What does a worst-case scenario season prediction look like?
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl victory, their second in four seasons. Everyone and their mother knows what a best-case scenario for Patrick Mahomes and company looks like in 2023: An undefeated campaign capped by another championship in the bag.
Only one team in NFL history has managed that feat and the odds would certainly be working against Kansas City, but it wouldn't feel impossible to dream about.
Instead, we're going to look at what the 2023 season would look like for the reigning champs in the worst-case* scenario.
*Worst-case without injuries factoring in, because no one wants to consider that possibility.
Kansas City Chiefs schedule 2023: Worst-case game-by-game predictions, Weeks 1-2
Kansas City doesn't lose season openers.
Detroit played just about everyone tight last year and finished 2022 with a good amount of momentum despite narrowly missing out on the playoffs. They've suffered some turnover but have a resurgent Jared Goff and outstanding Amon-Ra St. Brown leading the passing game.
Even so, Kansas City doesn't lose season openers.
Mahomes has a perfect 3-0 record against the Jaguars in his career and Jacksonville hasn't beaten the Chiefs home or away in their last six meetings.
The Jaguars are still trying to rebuild and KC will have already suffered their wake up call for the season. This one, even in a worst-case scenario, goes Kansas City's way. Still, there may be defensive cracks for Trevor Lawrence to exploit in a closer-than-comfortable matchup.
The Chiefs are 2-0 (0-0) going into Week 3…
Kansas City Chiefs schedule 2023: Worst-case game-by-game predictions, Weeks 3-5
The Chiefs scored 40 points three times last season. They'll hit that mark for the first time in 2023 going against a Chicago Bears team that still has a long way to go before they'll be able to challenge a team like Kansas City at Arrowhead.
Justin Fields is an intriguing figure whose 2023 performance could make-or-break his future in Chicago. This could get a little bit interesting for the defense but never worrisome.
Those little cracks and questions surrounding Kansas City's defense in games against the Jaguars and Bears reach a boiling point in the second loss of this worst-case scenario season.
Aaron Rodgers is reunited with Nathaniel Hackett and the Jets are loaded up with receiving talent. Is it so wild to consider a shootout between Mahomes and Rodgers?
Mahomes has never faced the Vikings, missing their last meeting in 2019 as Matt Moore of all people led the Chiefs to a 26-23 victory.
This could be a trap game for KC, even if these picks weren't skewed by the worst-case scenario of it all. It's the second-leg of back-to-back road games. It's in a hostile environment. And the last time Mahomes faced a Brian Flores defense he threw three interceptions in a six-point win over the Dolphins.
It's never fun putting confidence in Kirk Cousins and the Vikings defense, but remember, this is a glass-half-empty approach. It could happen.
The Chiefs are 3-2 (0-0) going into Week 6…
Kansas City Chiefs schedule 2023: Worst-case game-by-game predictions, Weeks 6-9
It's home sweet home time for the Chiefs coming off consecutive road losses. Their first divisional game of the season isn't a problem though. The Broncos may have a strong defense but Russell Wilson and Sean Payton need to prove they can get that offense rolling again before anyone banks on them in a matchup against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, especially on Thursday night. Mahomes and Reid are 4-0 as a pair on Thursday Night Football.
Here's the thing about the Chiefs-Chargers rivalry: Neither team is overawed by playing in hostile territory. Kansas City has won nine in a row on the Chargers' home turf while LA has a respectable 3-2 record in their last handful of trips to Arrowhead.
So we're keeping with the trend and giving the Chargers this one in another toss-up of a game between the two.
Not much changes in two weeks between the matchups for the Chiefs and Broncos. Kansas City is still the pick but both teams get more going on offense this time.
The Chiefs are 5-3 (2-1) going into Week 9…
Kansas City Chiefs schedule 2023: Worst-case game-by-game predictions, Weeks 10-12
This is an international game with both teams flying out to Germany for a fight in Frankfurt.
International games are crapshoots. It's impossible to predict how teams will respond to the travel, the time change or the new venue. Still, the Dolphins are 1-4 when playing internationally. The Chiefs are 2-0.
Congratulations Chiefs! You survived the trip to Germany and got a nice relaxing bye week to enjoy upon your return. Now you get to play the ultimate grudge match on Monday Night Football against the team you just beat in the Super Bowl under contentious circumstances!
The Eagles are winning this game. The NFL script writers wouldn't have it any other way.
It's a short week for KC coming off of Monday Night Football and they're on the road to boot. Still, they're facing a Raiders team in rebuild mode. Mahomes had his way with the Las Vegas defense last year and they haven't picked up enough reinforcements for that to change over night.
The Chiefs are 7-4 (3-1) going into Week 13…
Kansas City Chiefs schedule 2023: Worst-case game-by-game predictions, Weeks 13-15
The last time the Chiefs and Packers faced off it was a defensive slugfest in 2021. But it also featured both of the QBs expected in this matchup: Mahomes and Jordan Love, who had to step in for Aaron Rodgers because of COVID-19.
KC squeaked by the Packers in that one as Mahomes and the offense struggled. It'll be narrow one again but even in a worst-case scenario, picking Love over Mahomes doesn't fly.
The Chiefs have kept the Bills under their finger in recent playoff matchups, but the regular-season meetings have gone Buffalo's way more often.
Josh Allen has been outstanding in those matchups. Meanwhile, Mahomes had two interceptions in each of the last two regular-season meetings. It's not hard to imagine him having a couple more in this one as Kansas City trips up again.
Coming off a loss to the Bills, the Kansas City will want to take out their frustrations on someone and the Patriots will have to bear the brunt of that.
New England should have one of the better defenses in the league in 2023 but their offense leaves so much to be desired.
This one will pit JuJu Smith-Schuster against Kansas City for the first time, so that's a fun wrinkle.
The Chiefs are 9-5 (3-1) going into Week 16…
Kansas City Chiefs schedule 2023: Worst-case game-by-game predictions, Weeks 16-18
The Raiders have one win in Kansas City since 2012. This may be a worst-case scenario but it's not that much of a worst-case scenario.
The rivalry between the Chiefs and Bengals has become one of the most thrilling in the NFL. But the Kansas City has lost three of their last four meetings.
Each of those meetings were toss ups, so it seems fair to expect the same from this one. Just remember this is not a half-glass-full look at the season.
Under these circumstances, the regular-season finale between the Chiefs and Chargers could be for the division or a playoff spot.
Remember that thing about the home team in this series? Yeah, LA hasn't beaten Kansas City at SoFi Stadium since it opened. And the winning streak for the Chiefs on the road against the Chargers stretches further than that.
Another streak that suggests an edge for KC? Patrick Mahomes has never lost a regular-season finale.
Kansas City Chiefs record prediction in 2023 worst-case scenario
The Chiefs have been the class of the AFC West under Andy Reid and the arrival of Patrick Mahomes has made them the power in the AFC full-stop.
So what does a "down" season look like for Kansas City? We've seen Mahomes and company falter at times. The start of the 2021 season comes to mind.
But we've also seen them rally and get things right in the end. A dip for this team is just that, a dip, not a dive.
How much will the loss of Frank Clark impact the defense? Has KC accepted too little star power at receiver? These are questions that are sure to be answered come the fall and fans may not like the answers.
Still, when it comes down to it, the AFC West is the Chiefs to win. The Chargers may be formidable with Justin Herbert at the helm but they're prone to massive mistakes that cost them victories. The Raiders replaced Derek Carr with Jimmy Garapolo. Expecting massive improvement from them is unwise. And the Broncos may be better under Sean Payton but that turnaround isn't going to be quick enough to challenge Kansas City in 2023.
So the Chiefs lose to teams like the Eagles and Bengals, who have bones to pick with them, but they make the playoffs and look as dangerous as ever.
Worst-Case Scenario Record Prediction: 11-6 (5-1)