Consumer, health and energy shares are among just a handful of stock winners in Australia’s budget, as the country’s fiscal blueprint returned to a surplus for the first time since the 2008 global financial crisis.
The budget will record a A$4.2 billion ($2.8 billion) windfall in the 12 months through June 2023, supported by elevated commodity prices and full employment. The center-left government has sought to balance fiscal prudence with helping vulnerable Australians.
“The budget is a small positive for household spending, but not enough to offset the negatives impacting the sector,” AMP Ltd.’s Shane Oliver and Diana Mousina wrote in a note. “Overall, there is not really a lot in it for the share market.”
The country’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index is up 2.9% this year, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has gained 4%.
Here are some key stocks to watch:
Cost-of-Living Support
Welfare programs were given priority with a A$14.6 billion package to help households with cost-of-living pressures from rising consumer prices. This will include spending to reduce energy costs for millions of households and small businesses, as well as health-care reform and wage growth in some sectors.
While the package could increase spending on electronics, clothing and groceries, “the risk is that consumer savings are spent, boosting demand for goods and services and slowing the pace of disinflation,” said Ryan Felsman, a senior economist at the securities unit of Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Higher interest rates for longer would be negative for consumer and housing dependent companies.”
Key stocks to watch: JB Hi-Fi Ltd., Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd., Coles Group Ltd., Woolworths Group Ltd., Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd., Wesfarmers Ltd., Super Retail Group Ltd.
Energy Transition
The government will back the renewable hydrogen sector with A$2 billion for the Hydrogen Headstart program to support large-scale projects. It’s also legislating for a National Net Zero Authority to assist with the economic transformation associated with achieving net zero emissions.
Read: Fortescue Welcomes Hydrogen Headstart From Federal Budget
Offshore liquefied natural gas producers in Australia will be required to pay more tax from July as the government seeks to take a larger share of booming energy sector profits.
Key stocks to watch: Fortescue, Whitehaven Coal Ltd., New Hope Corp., Woodside Energy Group Ltd., Santos Ltd.
Health Care
Aged care workers including nurses, chefs and home care staff are going to get a 15% pay rise, benefiting more than 250,000 people.
Access to free doctor’s consultations will also be improved with a A$3.5 billion boost to general practitioner incentives. It’s expected to benefit 11.6 million people, including children and pensioners.
“All in all, and as expected, a solid budget outcome for Australian health and aged care companies,” Jefferies analysts led by David Stanton wrote in a note. “We continue to expect a reasonably positive near- to medium-term regulatory environment for Australian health-care services, as well as increased funding for aged care.”
Key stocks to watch: Ramsay Health Care Ltd., Estia Health Ltd., Regis Healthcare Ltd., Sonic Healthcare Ltd., Healius Ltd.
Skilled Labor
Efforts to target skilled migrants will aid companies in transportation, food production, health care, engineering and other sectors that are suffering from labor shortages, UBS Group AG strategist Richard Schellbach wrote in a note.
Telecommunications firms like Telstra Group Ltd. could also benefit from an expected increase in net migration over the next few years, he added.
Key stocks to watch: IDP Education Ltd., Telstra, TPG Telecom Ltd., Transurban Group
--With assistance from Matthew Burgess and Swati Pandey.