By Dawn Chmielewski and Lisa Richwine
When Pixar Animation Studios releases its 27th feature film in theaters on Friday, the pioneering studio behind blockbuster movies such as "Toy Story," "Cars" and "Finding Nemo" will be under pressure to demonstrate it has not lost its Midas touch.
The stakes are high for "Elemental," a tale of overcoming outward differences. The movie is projected to debut with a modest $31 million to $41 million this weekend in the U.S., according to the Box Office Pro website. That is well shy of the recent $120.5 million haul for Sony’s critically acclaimed animated hit "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse."
Pixar is looking to rebound from the box office disappointment of 2022 release "Lightyear," the origin story of "Toy Story" hero Buzz Lightyear. The movie brought in an earthbound $226.7 million in global ticket sales, a fraction of the $1 billion take for 2019's "Toy Story 4."
"Judging Pixar on the recent past, history would not be kind," said SVB MoffettNathanson media analyst Michael Nathanson.
The director and producer of "Lightyear" were laid off last month, Reuters first reported, as parent company Walt Disney Co shed 7,000 jobs across the company in a cost-cutting effort.
"Elemental" director Peter Sohn acknowledged he feels pressure to deliver a box-office hit, particularly since his movie is among the few summer titles based on an original story. The film was inspired by Sohn's appreciation for his Korean immigrant parents, a theme he hopes will resonate with audiences.
"This whole film was made to connect, and we hope it does," Sohn said in an interview with Reuters Television.
Meanwhile, rival studios are riding high with animated films.
Comcast Corp's Universal Pictures raked in $1.3 billion in worldwide ticket sales with its video-game adaptation, "The Super Mario Bros. Movie," and Sony Pictures Animation struck box-office gold with Spider-Man, one of Disney’s own characters.
“It used to be that when a Pixar film was coming out, it could be an original title that didn't even need to be based on pre-existing (characters)," said Box Office Pro senior analyst Shawn Robbins, "and it could still open like a mini-blockbuster, if not a full-fledged blockbuster."
"I think that's changed now, especially because there's more competition," Robbins added.
Pixar had no comment.
The pandemic, and former Disney Chief Executive Bob Chapek’s response, dealt Pixar a double whammy.
The COVID-19 outbreak undercut the theatrical run of March 2020 release "Onward," which brought in an underwhelming $146.2 million worldwide. Pixar's "Soul" in December 2020, "Luca" in June 2021 and "Turning Red" in March 2022 all debuted on the Disney+ streaming service in the U.S.
Disney said the direct-to-home strategy boosted sign-ups for Disney+ and put the movies in front of large audiences sheltering at home. "Turning Red" remains the most-watched film on Disney+ globally during its first three days.
But the move dealt a blow to creatives who had hoped their films would be seen on the big screen, according to one Pixar director who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"Elemental" is set in Element City, where Fire, Water, Earth and Air characters live together. An unexpected friendship between Fire and Water borrows from director Sohn’s relationship with his Italian-American wife. Sohn initially hid the relationship from his parents. "My grandmother’s dying words were literally, ‘Marry Korean!'" Sohn recounted.
Reviews of "Elemental" were mixed after it debuted at the Cannes Film Festival but have turned more positive. As of Monday, 76% of film critics gave the movie a positive review, according to the Rotten Tomatoes website.
That message of racial harmony reaches theaters as a segment of the country has branded Disney's themes as too "woke" - being alert to racial and social injustice - posing a potential box-office challenge.
Sohn said the movie, which was in the works for seven years, was inspired by a desire to honor his parents' experiences.
"They came from another country, coming here with nothing, and made a life for us," he said.
(Reporting by Dawn Chmielewski and Lisa Richwine in Los Angeles; Additional reporting by Nathan Frandino on San Francisco; Editing by Kenneth Li and Jonathan Oatis)