The European Union informed member states that the bloc is very unlikely to hit a pledge to provide Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition, complicating Kyiv’s ability to keep pace with Russia’s own production.

The EU’s foreign policy arm, the European External Action Service, briefed EU diplomats this week that the bloc would likely miss the March 2024 target, according to people familiar with the matter.

Under plans made earlier this year, the EU pledged to provide the artillery ammunition rounds to Ukraine over a 12-month period, first by dipping into existing stocks and then through joint procurement contracts and increasing industrial capacity.

Bloomberg previously reported that the EU was falling short of the target. With more than half of that time now gone, the initiative has so far delivered about 30% of the target and, based on the volume of contracts signed to date, risked missing its goal.

A spokesperson from the European External Action service declined to comment on the matter, citing the confidential nature of the discussions.

Some member states have been reluctant to disclose details of supplies and the EU may ask them to share more information about planned deliveries in order to have a complete picture, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The issue will be discussed at a meeting of EU defense ministers next week.

Supplying Ukraine with ammunition is made all the more urgent by the fact that Russia has been able to ramp up its own production. Some member states noted during meetings this week that supplies provided to Moscow by North Korea further underscored the need for the EU to be more effective, said the people.

A South Korean lawmaker said earlier this month that Pyongyang has sent more than 1 million shells to Russia.

As Ukraine braces for a long war, any European shortfall risks becoming critical should US supplies and support also slow or next year’s presidential election campaign lead to a change in position. The Pentagon said this week it had started to throttle back military assistance to Ukraine due to funding delays in Congress.

Separately, EU member states continue to haggle over providing Ukraine with further military support and financial aid, with the advancement of several pots of money stalled as capitals dither and argue.