Factbox-Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in 2024

2023-11-16 19:17

Some of the major banks in the world expect global economic growth to slow further in 2024, squeezed

Some of the major banks in the world expect global economic growth to slow further in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and a slowdown in the world's two largest economies.

The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll showed, with next year's growth seen slowing to 2.6%.

Most economists expect the global economy to avoid a recession, but have flagged possibilities of "mild recessions" in Europe and the UK.

A soft-landing for the United States is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening path clouds the outlook. China's growth is seen weakening, exacerbated by companies seeking alternative cost-efficient production destinations.

Following are forecasts from major global banks:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024

GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA

AREA

2.60% 2.10% 4.80% 0.90% 0.6% 6.3%

Goldman

Sachs

2.80% 1.90% 4.20% 0.50% 6.4%

Morgan -0.1%

Stanley

UBS 2.60% 1.10% 4.40%

0.60%

0.6% 6.2%

Barclays 2.60% 1.20% 0.1%

0.30%

4.40% 6.2%

U.S. inflation (annual Federal funds

Y/Y for 2024) target rate (Dec

'24)

Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.40% 2.60% 5.13%

Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70% 4.375%

UBS 2.70% 2.75%

Wells Fargo 2.50% 2.60%

4.75%-5.00%

Barclays 2.70% 5.25%-5.50%

The Fed's main rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%

S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/C

target yield NY

target

Goldman Sachs 4700 4.55% 1.10 150.00 7.15

Morgan Stanley 4500 1 140 7.5

UBS 4600 3.60% 1.15 130 7.15

Wells Fargo 4600-480 1.08-1.1 136-140

0 4.75%-5.2 2

Barclays 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20

As of 1040 GMT on Nov. 16, 2023:

S&P 500: 4502.88

US 10-year yield: 4.5019%

EUR/USD: 1.084

USD/CNY: 7.248

USD/JPY: 151.27

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Anil D'Silva)