By Ann Saphir
The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market but also stronger-than-expected economic growth, divisions are more evident, with more varied choices: to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause.
All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The following chart offers a stab at how officials currently stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic.
Over time Reuters has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances - for a chart of how our counts have changed please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Lisa Cook, John Williams, New Jerome Michelle
Governor, York Fed President, Powell, Fed Bowman,
permanent permanent voter: Chair, Governor,
voter: “If "Right now we need permanent permanent
confirmed, I to keep this voter: voter: "The
will stay restrictive stance Additional policy rate
focused on of policy in place evidence of may need to
inflation for some time." persistently rise further
until our job Oct. 18, 2023 above-trend and stay
is done.” June growth, or restrictive
21, 2023 that for some time
tightness in to return
the labor inflation to
market is no the FOMC's
longer goal." Oct.
easing, could 11, 2023
put further
progress on
inflation at
risk and
could warrant
further
tightening of
monetary
policy.” Oct.
19, 2023
Patrick Philip Jefferson, Christopher Loretta
Harker, Vice Chair: "We are Waller, Mester,
Philadelphia in a sensitive Governor, Cleveland Fed
Fed President, period of risk permanent President,
2023 voter: "I management, where voter: “We 2024 voter:
think this is we have to balance can wait, "We are likely
a time where the risk of not watch and see near or at a
we just sit having tightened how the holding point
for a little enough, against the economy on the funds
bit. It may be risk of policy evolves rate.” Oct.
for an being too before making 20, 2023
extended restrictive.” Oct. definitive
period; it may 9, 2023 moves on the
not. But let’s path of the
see how things policy rate."
evolve over Oct. 18, 2023
the next few
months.” Oct.
18, 2023
Raphael Michael Barr, Vice Neel
Bostic, Chair of Kashkari,
Atlanta Fed Supervision, Minneapolis
President, permanent voter: Fed
2024 voter: "I “In my view, the President,
would say late most important 2023 voter:
2024” is on question at this "Today I put
the table for point is not a 40%
an whether an probability"
interest-rate additional rate on the
cut. Oct. 20, increase is needed scenario that
2023 this year or not, “we would
but rather how long have to push
we will need to the federal
hold rates at a funds rate
sufficiently higher,
restrictive level potentially
to achieve our meaningfully
goals.” Oct. 2, higher.”
2023 Sept. 26,
2023
Austan Goolsbee, Lorie Logan,
Chicago Fed Dallas Fed
President, 2023 President,
voter: “It’s 2023 voter:
undeniable this “My focus is
(fall in U.S. on price
inflation) is a stability and
trend. It wasn’t a what further
one-month blip... tightening
we have to hope and may be needed
keep an eye out to to achieve
make sure that our mandate."
continues." Oct. Oct. 19, 2023
16, 2023
Mary Daly, San Thomas
Francisco Fed Barkin,
President, 2024 Richmond Fed
voter: “I would say President,
now the risks of 2024 voter:
how we balance "I am still
those things are looking to be
roughly balanced -- convinced,
over-tightening both that
versus demand is
under-tightening -- settling and
but we still have that any
high inflation and weakness is
the labor market's feeding
still strong." Oct. through to
10, 2023 inflation."
Oct. 17, 2023
Susan Collins,
Boston Fed
President, 2025
voter: "The
resilience we’re
seeing in the
economy is part of
the reason why,
from my view, the
rates likely need
to stay high for
longer." Oct. 12,
2023
Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July.
Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate hike by year’s end. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed's president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed its president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.
Below is a Reuters' count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
FOMC Date
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Oct/Nov '23 2 7 5
0 2
Sept '23 4 3 6
0 3
Jun
'23 3 3 8
0 3
March '23 0 2 3 10 2
Dec '22 0 4 1 12 2
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci)