Sunday greetings from New York City. It may be the end of summer, often a slow time for news, but there’s no letup this week.
The big rain: California and the Southwest are girding for dangerous flooding as Hurricane Hilary churns north along Mexico’s Pacific coastline spreading heavy rain and treacherous tides. It’s the latest in a summer of record-breaking climate extremes, more evidence of the consequences of global warming. And US public utilities haven’t kept up: It took officials at Hawaiian Electric, blamed in a lawsuit for starting the deadly fires in Maui, roughly three years to submit a public action plan to address threats that could cause wildfires. This isn’t a problem just for Hawaii. The big talk: Everyone is wondering what Fed Chair Jerome Powell will say on Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, attended by top central bankers from around the world. Price and wage pressures continue to dissipate, which should bolster the case for an end to rate increases. But we’ve also seen ongoing strength in indicators of labor-market activity and consumer spending, which may keep policymakers uneasy about the prospects for ongoing easing of inflation. We await Powell’s current state of mind.
The big earnings: Among equity traders reeling from the market’s worst stretch since February, Powell’s speech may not be the biggest test. Ahead of Powell’s address, traders are going to look to a crucial earnings report Wednesday from Nvidia Corp. to set the tone. And the highest long-term Treasury yields in years are headed for a major hearing next week as investors place their bids for two risky auctions.
The big debate: The first GOP presidential debate takes place on Wednesday in Milwaukee, though Donald Trump is apparently skipping it to instead sit for an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. That leaves Florida Governor Ron DeSantis the de facto punching bag as candidates with lower poll numbers look to break out of the pack. Watch who criticizes Trump (former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie) and who doesn’t (DeSantis, once a Yale baseball captain, is still base-stealing). Senator Tim Scott, who has piqued the interest of key Wall Street benefactors, has an opportunity to stand out with his optimistic message of the US and a vision for less divisive politics.
The big booking: Trump is required to appear at the Fulton County Jail by Friday on charges that he conspired to unlawfully change the outcome of the presidential election in Georgia. Here’s a detailed cheat-sheet of his legal perils.
Two big elections: Ecuador will vote on Sunday amid its most violent election cycle in memory, after the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio. Security and stability are now a focus of the election, and investors are betting an unexpected rally in the country’s battered bonds isn’t finished. Guatemala will also vote for president on Sunday after an acrimonious campaign marred by prosecutor raids on the electoral authority and criticism from the US government. Anti-corruption campaigner Bernardo Arévalo has been the frontrunner since defying polls in the June first round to win a place in this weekend’s runoff
Another big election: Preparations are already underway for Vladimir Putin, mired in his war against Ukraine, to secure a fifth term in March 2024 elections, even as anxiety about the future spreads among senior officials and business tycoons, according to four people close to the Kremlin. The Bank of Russia’s emergency interest rate hike last week was not just a response to the latest fall in the ruble but part of a wider effort to subdue inflation before the vote.
If this is all too much, it’s your choice to sit out the week beachside and laze away the waning days of summer 2023. No one would blame you. But... sharks.