We are at roughly the halfway point of the 2023 college football season. Through Week 6, we think we know some things, but there is so much more out there that we cannot even begin to get our collective heads around. One such thing would be this sweet analysis put together by Brian Fremeau of BCF Toys. It is all about points per drive. Let's dive into why this is so incredibly important in all this.
In Fremeau's breakdown, each of the last five College Football Playoff national champions (2022 Georgia, 2021 Georgia, 2020 Alabama, 2019 LSU, 2018 Clemson) have finished the season plus-2 in net points per drive. While you can win a title with less than two (2010 Auburn, 2014 Ohio State, 2016 Clemson, 2017 Alabama), the combination of offensive firepower and defensive prowess is so crucial.
Through the first six weeks of the season, only eight teams find themselves above the plus-2 threshold. Of course, a lot can change between now and the end of the season, but let's keep on keeping an eye on these teams, shall we? Here are the eight teams who can win a national title.
- Michigan Wolverines: +3.77
- Oregon Ducks: +3.37
- Washington Huskies: +2.92
- Air Force Falcons: +2.74
- Oklahoma Sooners: +2.43
- Georgia Bulldogs: +2.43
- USC Trojans: +2.13
- Penn State Nittany Lions: +2.07
While seven of these teams were probably contenders anyway, which one is not like the others?
You would certainly say it is the Air Force Falcons, but have you seen the USC Trojans play defense?
Let's discuss why these numbers are important, as well as who else should we keep a close eye on...
Match checks out: Only 8 college football teams can win a championship
Looking at Fremeau's great work, there are an additional seven teams ranked inside his top 15 per net points. Those teams are as follows: Fresno State Bulldogs (+1.92), Ohio State Buckeyes (+1.90), Florida State Seminoles (+1.86), Texas Longhorns (+1.84), Maryland Terrapins (+1.77), North Carolina Tar Heels (+1.75) and the Liberty Flames (+1.74). As you can see, most of the teams are undefeated.
I think what this suggests is who out of the Power Five is capable of winning it all, as well as identifying possible candidates out of the Group of Five to reach the New Year's Six. Making the four-team playoff is just too hard for the Group of Five this season, and most seasons. So for as much as I would love to see a triple-option service academy play in the Rose Bowl, that is not happening at all.
Ultimately, I think you have to like everyone outside of Air Force in the top eight's shot at making the playoff. From there, it is all about the matchups. And while I doubt that Fresno State, Liberty and Maryland have a realistic shot making the playoff, I am not ruling out teams like Florida State, North Carolina and Ohio State just yet either. Right now, there are about 16 or teams who can make it in.
As the season progresses, we may need to look at net points per drive once again to see the truth.