When the 2023 season started, had a fortune teller told you two American League East teams would be locked in a heated battle for the No. 1 seed in the American League, you might have guessed any combination of the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, and Tampa Bay Rays.

Few expected the Baltimore Orioles to be right there in the thick of it, and the Blue Jays and Yankees finding themselves on the outside looking in.

Yet, mid-September and that's exactly where we are. The Rays sit a game behind the Orioles, with the winner of the AL East likely to also take the No. 1 seed in the American League and home field advantage as the path to the World Series. Fortunately, a perfectly timed Rays/Orioles four-game series will give us plenty of answers, and more importantly, entertainment surrounding the race for the American League regular season crown.

The Rays took home a 4-3 win on Thursday night. The bullpen was on its A-game, putting up 34 straight innings of no runs allowed. It was the difference in the game, with the Rays scoring one run after the fifth inning, the Orioles scoring none.

Rays chances of winning AL East leapt up dramatically after Thursday win

Coming into the day, the Orioles had a 71.4% chance of winning the AL East, with the Rays making up the 28.6% remainder of the probability according to Fangraphs. After the bullpen-buoyed win, the Rays jumped up to 38.5%, dropping the Orioles to 61.5%.

If the Rays can keep winning in this all-important series, they can put things much closer to 50/50. The biggest thing the Orioles have going for themselves now, beyond the obvious of their one-game lead, is that they have a slightly easier schedule according to Fangraphs (.512) than the Rays (.519) the rest of the way.

Sweeping a four-game series would be a tall task, but it would instantly change the landscape for the entire American League.

Surely a series to watch all the way into the weekend.