The US summer travel season is kicking off with forecasts for the third-busiest Memorial Day on record, driving hopes that strong fuel consumption will counter a bleak economic outlook.

As many as 42.3 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home this Memorial Day weekend, a 7% increase over 2022, according to a forecast from AAA and S&P Global. These include 2 million more drivers, who are expected to take advantage of lower pump prices this year compared to last, though car travel is still down from pre-pandemic levels. US gasoline demand outpaced year-ago levels by 2% in the latest government data.

Air travel is set to exceed pre-pandemic levels with 5.4% more passengers. This will likely mean more jet fuel consumption, though rising efficiency in terms of aircraft design and scheduling strategy could dull the fuel impact.

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