Walker Buehler is out for the 2023 season. Here's what it means for the Los Angeles Dodgers going forward, including three replacements this season.
All signs were pointing toward Walker Buehler not pitching in 2023 as he returns from Tommy John surgery. On Friday afternoon, the team confirmed that Buehler would not pitch this season, the latest blow in what has been a rough stretch for the Dodgers' rotation.
The good news, however, is that Buehler did not have a setback. The team is just exercising an abundance of caution with their star right-hander and do not want to push him too hard too early.
As far as 2023, the Dodgers' rotation is in trouble. Buehler will not be a solution. Julio Urias is away from the team and on administrative leave after he was arrested on suspicion of felony domestic violence. Lance Lynn is struggling. Clayton Kershaw is pitching through left shoulder soreness and his velocity has decreased in recent outings. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin, meanwhile, are both on the mend.
It leaves the Dodgers' rotation in a precarious position, and makes Eduardo Rodriguez's decision to not accept a midseason trade to Los Angeles that much more important. And it will put these three pitchers into the spotlight.
Dodgers replacements for Walker Buehler: Bobby Miller
With the rotation in taters, the Dodgers will rely on their young prospects to pitch meaningful innings down the stretch.
Miller, 24, headlines that group. In 17 outings (94.2 innings), he has produced a 3.80 ERA and an 84/26 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has consistently pitched deep into games this season, as his last five outings have gone at least six innings, including a seven inning, one-run outing against the Atlanta Braves in his most recent start on September 3.
Something to watch is Miller's innings going forward. In the minors, he had never thrown over 112.1 innings in a season (he did so in 2022). Between Triple-A and the majors this season, he's already accumulated 106 innings.
Will the Dodgers be mindful of his workload or will they let him continue to pitch six or seven innings? It's unclear. But given the state of their rotation, they may not have a choice.
Dodgers replacements for Walker Buehler: Ryan Pepiot
Pepiot, 26, is another one of the Dodgers' top prospects. He's been up-and-down between Triple-A and the majors this season, but given the state of the team's rotation, it appears he's here to stay.
On Thursday, Pepiot showed not only why he belongs in the majors but deserves a spot in the playoff rotation. He took a perfect game into the seventh inning, allowing only one hit with three strikeouts in a gem against the Miami Marlins.
It improved his season numbers to a 0.86 ERA and an impressive 17/2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 innings. Perhaps most encouraging about that line is his improved command; just a season ago, he allowed 27 walks in 36.1 innings in the majors.
Unlike Miller, there are no workload concerns with Pepiot. He has only 43.2 innings under his belt between Triple-A and the majors, and should be a major contributor for the franchise this season.
Dodgers replacements for Walker Buehler: Emmet Sheehan
Stop me if you've heard this before: but Sheehan, 23, is another one of the Dodgers' top pitching prospects.
His numbers this season, however, leave something to be desired. In nine outings (42.1 innings), he has a 5.31 ERA and a 36/21 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The command is something that he'll need to harness if he wants to have a prominent role in the postseason. But the good news is that he has bounced back in recent outings, as he has allowed only three runs while striking out 14 and walking five batters his last three starts (13 innings).
It's an unusual position for the Dodgers to be in entering the postseason. In recent years, they have had a group headlined by Kershaw, Urias, Buehler and others. But there is a very real shot that the latter two will not be part of the rotation this postseason while it's unknown how effective Kershaw will be with decreased velocity.
The good news for the Dodgers, however, is that Buehler will be back in 2024. They'll also have a battle tested young trio of high-upside arms, and that should only help them in 2024 and beyond. Just what it means for 2023 is unclear, and could leave them vulnerable against veteran lineups such as the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.