The Atlanta Braves may be in the market for more starting pitching, but they can't get fooled by these three pieces of trade bait.
The Atlanta Braves lead the National League in terms of win percentage, so there is a very valid case to be made for doing absolutely nothing at this year's August 1st MLB trade deadline. Clearly, Atlanta is a talented team that can win games as-is.
Plus, they're getting Michael Soroka back on Monday, a Memorial Day treat that could be a better addition than anything in the trade market ever will be.
That said, championship teams don't rest on their laurels and they sure as heck don't sit on their hands at trade season. Though they don't have to make a move, they have to at least go through the deliberation process.
We looked at players the Braves should consider trading (plus one they definitely can't) this weekend, but today, I want to look at players from the outside that they can't get tempted by.
The Braves, if they upgrade anywhere, will probably look to starting pitching. Again, depending on Soroka, this may not be as big of a need as it is now, but as it stands the starting rotation is the one area that could get even better than it is.
Spencer Strider and Max Fried have been great. Charlie Morton has been good as well though it feels like he is missing a gear this season.
After that, there's room for improvement. Clearly, the Braves have been just fine with what they have now, but great teams always look for ways to get better.
These starting pitchers simply can't fool the Braves.
Pitchers the Braves shouldn't trade for: Brad Keller
Oh, a mediocre pitcher on a bad team? Sign us up, right?
Of course not. Can't mess up a good thing with a lukewarm arm.
After a strong start to the year that figured to have him in the conversation in trade season, Kansas City Royals starter Brad Keller has cooled off considerably, now with a 4.36 ERA and 1.869 WHIP. The Royals will probably try to cash in on Keller (as well as Aroldis Chapman out of the bullpen) since he's a free agent this summer.
Atlanta shouldn't bite, because Keller has been inconsistent throughout his career and in this season alone.
Throughout his career, he has been demoted to the bullpen at times and closed seasons with ERAs anywhere from 2.47 to 5.39. Granted, he has not played on good teams, but he's not the guaranteed win at the deadline the Braves should be looking for if they make a change to the rotation.
Looking at his field-independent pitching, too, his ERA is actually masked to some degree by the Royals defense, with an FIP this year of 5.73, 1.37 worse than his ERA.
All around, Keller feels like a high-ceiling, but low-floor addition. The Braves need a more certain thing.
Pitchers the Braves shouldn't trade for: Jordan Montgomery, St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Montgomery has been a relative disappointment for the St. Louis Cardinals since they traded the speedy outfielder Harrison Bader for him last season. Montgomery was fine down the stretch in 2022 but has ballooned to a 4.48 ERA with a 1.442 WHIP this season.
A free agent this summer, the Cardinals will probably look to offload him since he hasn't panned out in St. Louis as expected, especially if they can find a replacement of their own in the trade market.
The problem for the Braves is this is unlikely to be an upgrade at all.
Sure, a change of scenery might do Montgomery well, but this would be his third team in the last 13 months or so. The likelihood that he is troubled by instability feels higher than a sudden change in play due to a new home city and ball club.
There's much made about Montgomery's bad luck, and I think the people pushing those claims (I, at times, have done so, too) are probably right to some degree. Montgomery got virtually no run support in 2022 in his starts from the Yankees and he gets worse defensive backing from the Cardinals than his other pitchers do.
Maybe it has something to do with that, but Montgomery just hasn't always inspired as a starter over the last two years. If the Braves make a move, it needs to be for a guaranteed winner on the bump, like I said on the last slide.
Then, consider the fact that the Cardinals are probably going to be looking to add pitching themselves this trade deadline. If Montgomery is, in fact, on the block, it's not exactly inspiring to see that the Cardinals are moving him to probably immediately replace him with someone else.
The Braves have to be sure to ask the question, "why is this guy available?" when looking to deal.
Lastly, since he's a free agent, this would be a short-sighted move. That may be the case with all pitchers available at the deadline, but combined with the other cons here, it just has me souring on the fit for Atlanta.
Pitchers the Braves shouldn't trade for: Marcus Stroman, Chicago Cubs
Keeping it in the NL Central, Marcus Stroman is going to be a big name floated around at the trade deadline, but I would be unsurprised to see him stick around at Wrigley Field August 1st and beyond. Stroman has declared his love for playing for the Cubs, and the way Chicago is performing now, their best bet to secure a quality starting pitcher for years to come is to capitalize on Stroman's desire to agree to a long-term extension with the team and Chicago is open to that.
It might be tricky to convince the best of the best in free agency this winter to come to Chicago. Stroman already wants to be there and plays well there.
But back to Atlanta, Stroman does play a decent narrative when you think about how he would fit in Atlanta. He already hates the Mets, which plays well for the Braves. He's an electric pitcher who would be fun to see at Truist in front of passionate Braves fans, especially in a postseason environment.
He's also pitching well, with a sub-3.00 ERA and a 1.094 WHIP. He has allowed just seven barreled balls, the second-lowest among qualified pitchers in the MLB according to FanGraphs.
I, personally, am a huge fan of Stroman as a starting pitcher, just not for the Braves.
If Atlanta is to add starting pitching at the deadline, it needs to be a sure-thing, quality starter. As it stands, Atlanta has performed well, so they risk a lot of messing with the winning formula by adding a new pitcher into the mix just because he's flashy and has good numbers.
Stroman is fun to watch and, like I said, electric. I also love that he doesn't have an arsenal quite like a typical starting pitcher. Unfortunately, I think that could also be his undoing in the postseason. Stroman has a great mix of six pitches, but none that feel like standouts. I worry he's liable to implode in the postseason without a go-to sequencing to establish a favorite pitch.
If anything, it's probably the sinker, which he throws over 40 percent of the time. That pitch scares me because opponents are hitting .215 against it, but the expected batting average is .285. In fact, he doesn't have a single pitch where the XBA is lower than the batting average. If that comes back to earth after a team trades for him, they might feel like they got a lemon.
Other metrics, like field independent pitching, show Stroman's quality starts aren't exactly all that they seem. His FIP is 3.74, which is 0.79 higher than his ERA.
I don't think Stroman would be a bad addition (in fact, of the three pitchers here, he would be the best gamble), but given his upcoming free agency, he would be a shortsighted move that wouldn't provide a big enough upgrade to make worth it, much like the first two pitchers on this list.