Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola figures to be one of the hottest commodities in free agency this offseason. USA Today insider Bob Nightengale recently reported that the Phillies weren't close to an extension with the 30-year-old starter last offseason as Nola eyed something in the range of eight years, $200 million while Phladelphia only offered something lasting four or five years.
Ostensibly, Nola bet on himself in a contract year. In the regular season, though, that decision looked a tad questionable as Nola posted a 4.46 ERA (third-highest of his career) and 1.15 WHIP while also allowing a career-high 32 home runs.
But if the regular season lost Aaron Nola any money, he's making it back in the postseason.
In two starts over the Wild Card and NLDS against the Marlins and Braves, Nola pitched 12.2 innings, giving up just nine hits, two walks, and two eard runs while striking out 12. But he saved his best for Game 2 of the NLCS against the Diamondbacks, completely quieting the Arizona lineup. All told, he gave up just three hits, no runs, and no walks over 6.0 innings with seven strikeouts. Put simply, he was magnificent.
Nola recently told the media that he would love to stay with the Phillies, the team that he's spent his entire MLB career with. However, if they low-ball him again with an offer, or if another team makes an offer he can't refuse, it's not out of the question still that he could depart Philadelphia. And these five teams should be willing to spend the big bucks to make that happen in free agency.
5. New York Yankees
It's no secret that the New York Yankees will be keenly interested in upgrading their rotation this offseason. They attempted to supplement the group headlined by Cy Young frontrunner Gerrit Cole over the past year and a half by trading for Frankie Montas in 2022 and then signing Carlos Rodon last offseason.
Montas never took the mound due to injury in the 2023 season, though, and is now scheduled to hit free agency himself. Rodon, meanwhile, also struggled to stay healthy throughout the year. Even when he was able to pitch, though, he put forth one of the worst seasons of his otherwise studly career.
Rodon will likely get another crack at things in 2024, which would put the Yankees rotation in a situation where they have Cole, Rodon, Nestor Cortes and possibly Clarke Schmidt in the rotation. That still leaves a pretty dire need for an upper-echelon starter to fill out the rest of this group, if not two.
Many Yankees fans have expressed an earnest desire to add another lefty to the rotation in free agency, something that Nola obviously wouldn't do. However, if Brian Cashman could simply add a player of Nola's caliber, fans might care much less about which arm he uses while on the mound.
What's clear is that the Yankees need something to move the needle after a wholly disappointing 2023 campaign and landing Nola could very well play a part in that.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
It's essentially been common knowledge at this point that Plan A for the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2023-24 offseason has long been landing Shohei Ohtani. Throughout that time, the two-way Japanese superstar figured to be an asset who would bolster the lineup with one of the best bats in baseball while also giving the rotation a massive shot in the arm with a legitimate Cy Young candidate.
Ohtani's elbow injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery, however, have thrown a wrench into those plans. Now, the Dodgers look potentially like one of the most pitching-needy teams in MLB. And that makes a top-of-market arm like Aaron Nola that much more feasible for them.
Perhaps even more so than the Yankees and the perception in New York, the Dodgers have consistently been in the market of top-line players at every position whenever they've become available, whether by trade or in free agency. We've seen that with the likes of Max Scherzer, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner and many more.
However, with the uncertain futures of Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias along with a rotation that was already relatively unreliable this season, the Dodgers have a dire need to bolster that aspect of the roster this offseason.
The expectation should be for LA to have at least conversations with every viable top-end starting pitcher in free agency this offseason, Nola included. And it wouldn't be surprising if their underlying desperation pushes the front office to beat the market with their checkbook.
3. Chicago Cubs
It remains to be seen whether or not the early-season performance of Marcus Stroman is something that can be banked on moving forward, but injuries and some late-year struggles likely mean that the veteran right-hander is going to pick up his player option for the 2024 season with the Chicago Cubs, which was not always a guarantee, especially when he was in NL Cy Young contention.
That gives the Cubs rotation a big boost for the 2024 season in itself, especially if Stroman can return to form. Pairing him with breakout ace Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad (or another young arm like Jordan Wicks) could make for a great start to this group. And yet, it's hard to look past adding Nola to the top of that rotation and what that could mean.
Chicago ultimately missed out on making the postseason in 2023, a missed opportunity as they went ice-cold over the closing weeks of the regular season. As a result of that, though, many believe the Cubs could wind up being ultra-aggressive in free agency and overall this offseason as they try to upgrade the roster with high-end talent, both plugging holes and strengthening strengths.
Adding Nola would qualify in the latter category, but in a major way. For a rebuilding Cubs team, a veteran like the current Phillies star with a plethora of big-time playoff experience, a great overall track record in the regular season, and his fit in the Chicago rotation could be a massive help in getting the club over the next hump.
2. Boston Red Sox
To say things are a bit tumultuous right now with the Boston Red Sox might be an understatement. Not only is Chaim Bloom out in the front office, but there has also been a number of departures from the coaching staff as well. To make things even more complicated in the bowels of Fenway Park, the GM search to replace Bloom has gone anything but smoothly early on.
Having said that, as long as team owner John Henry is finally willing to spend instead of senselessly penny-pinching, the Red Sox have the opportunity to make major, aggressive upgrades this offseason to a core of players that appears primed to contend. And that should undoubtedly start with the pitching staff, which has been a sore spot for the organization in recent years.
Make no mistake, the pitching cupboards aren't completely bare in Boston. Brayan Bello showed signs of being a potential ace in 2023, his first full MLB season. Chris Sale still hopes for a full, healthy season. James Paxton could return on a qualifying offer. Then there's the likes of Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford as well to consider.
Having said that, the current iterations of Red Sox pitching have been oft-injured and, partially due to that and partially due to poor performance, have ultimately been unreliable. Though signing a pitcher like Aaron Nola to a lucrative deal until he's essentially 40 years old might not help that case years down the line, it could help tremendously in the immediate. And for a team that has looked like one of the better offenses in baseball of late, solidifying the rotation, even if expensive, should be of the utmost importance.
1. St. Louis Cardinals
You were undoubtedly waiting for this one, so here ya go.
The connection between the St. Louis Cardinals and Aaron Nola has been all but omnipresent in the MLB rumors circles for months now. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak has stated plainly that the priority to repair the disaster of the 2023 season is to upgrade the pitching going into 2024. And that has led to reports of a "wish list" for the Cardinals -- Nola has long been at the top of that.
Frankly, the Cards might end up just needing warm bodies with the way the rotation currently shakes out. There is going to be a lot of work that needs to be done in free agency or on the trade market to fill out a rotation that can help St. Louis contend next season as it's basically Miles Mikolas, a hope, and a prayer that is solidified as part of that group for 2024 right now.
Yet, it shouldn't be a shock that Nola is one of the priorities for this franchise. His postseason prowess -- even before the 2023 playoffs, but definitely after too -- his consistency over his career, and his veteran experience overall at 30 years old seem to check all of the boxes for what the Cardinals would be looking for in terms of a headliner to reshape the rotation.
The big key for the Cardinals, however, will be outbidding the Phillies or any of these other suitors who could make a play for the right-hander. The organization has typically not been overly willing to spend top-dollar. But with the situation and corner they've painted themselves into, they won't have a choice if they want to pursue the rebuild plan they hope to this offseason. That starts with ponying up for Nola.