Aroldis Chapman feels like a sure MLB trade deadline mover. These teams appear to be some of the best fits for him.
Aroldis Chapman has taken his one-year deal with the Kansas City Royals incredibly seriously and will almost certainly leverage it into a spot on a team vying for a playoff spot.
After his reputation hit a low point last season with a lengthy absence away from the Yankees due to injuries and then disagreements about his role on the playoff roster (standard relief vs locked-in closer), he has reinvented himself in Kansas City and proven he still has the velocity and control that many thought had escaped him for good. He threw the fastest pitch of the MLB season.
The Royals are not winning games, and given that Chapman's contract will expire at the end of this year, the trade deadline will be a perfect time for the Royals to cash in on their offseason signing, getting some prospects in return for competitive teams that would like to add Chapman for their down-the-stretch play.
The Royals have already received calls on Chapman according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required), that much we do know. While the teams that have reached out haven't leaked just yet, I'll do my best to pinpoint who I think the five favorites should be to land Chapman in a trade this season.
Favorites to trade for Aroldis Chapman: St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have deeper needs with their starting pitching rotation, but adding some relief help couldn't hurt, either. St. Louis has already had to relegate some pitchers like Jordan Hicks to low-leverage situations, so having a go-to pitcher out of the pen for high-leverage scenarios to secure wins could be exactly what they need to continue getting back on track.
The Cardinals have a long road ahead of them to climb up out of the hole they dug themselves into to start the year in the NL Central, and Chapman could certainly help them get there.
Spoiler alert, but we have another team later on in this list from the NL Central. Keeping him out of other teams' hands in the division while accomplishing the above would make this a win in multiple ways.
Favorites to trade for Aroldis Chapman: Philadelphia Phillies
Is Craig Kimbrel broken again? After coming over to the Phillies in the offseason, his ERA has skyrocketed to 6.35 this season, with a WHIP of 1.412. Kimbrel has five saves so far this season but has been one of the struggling players preventing Philadelphia from capitalizing on the excitement they generated from a surprise run to the World Series in 2022.
At this point, it's looking like they may not even make the playoffs in 2023.
As a unit, the relievers in Philly put up lots of strikeouts per nine innings, but are high on ERA and sixth-worst in relief WHIP.
Chapman would give them options. Kimbrel or Chapman could both feasibly close games, and since they throw with opposite hands (Kimbrel right, Chapman left) Rob Thompson could make that decision somewhat situationally if both are on their A-game, which feels like a best case scenario given the mercuriality of both pitchers. They also have two completely different styles, with Kimbrel using a breaking ball 33% of the time. Chapman relies primarily on his velocity to get batters out.
Remember, Kimbrel has had issues with his throwing mechanics in the past, and he's had to rework those things mid-season. He was pulled from the closer role by the Dodgers last year, and that might be the move for Philly this year if they made an acquisition for someone such as Chapman.
Finally, much like the Cardinals, we have another team from this division later on the list which could motivate the Phillies to move more aggressively than they otherwise might.
Favorites to trade for Aroldis Chapman: Chicago Cubs
The last time the Chicago Cubs acquired Aroldis Chapman midseason, they won a World Series… Just sayin'.
Chapman makes some sense with the Cubs because it would be an easy reunion and the Cubs have every need to shore up the latter innings of their pitching performances. Starters Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele and Drew Smyly have been more than adequate, but the Cubs need relief help. Chicago has a 1.31 WHIP among relief pitchers (11th-worst in the MLB). Starters have a 3.95 ERA, relievers a 4.12, the 10th-worst among relief units.
I, admittedly, had the Cubs higher up on this list originally, but my colleague and insider Robert Murray graded the fit a 3 out of 10. I have to respect the insider's opinion on this one. It would be fun, but probably won't happen since there are teams with greater motivation to land Chapman.
Favorites to trade for Aroldis Chapman: San Diego Padres
Looking purely at the current state of relief pitchers in the Padres organization, San Diego probably doesn't need Aroldis Chapman. That said, they had an interest in him along with the Royals while he was still a late winter free agent, and adding him to the bullpen wouldn't hurt.
The Padres have the eighth-best WHIP among relieving pitcher staffs but are middle of the road in most others. A Chapman addition certainly wouldn't hurt. The Padres have the third-highest payroll in the MLB and the edict when you spend that big is simple: Win. Any moves that get them closer to that are necessary.
The pressure is on with the Padres third in the NL West at 21-26, eight games back from the Dodgers in first place.
As for the status quo, Josh Hader has 11 saves for the Padres this season, fourth-most in the MLB, along with a 0.95 ERA. Chapman might have to take a backseat to the closer role and come in as a high-leverage reliever in the 6th or 7th inning and beyond in San Diego, which isn't the best fit for him, which is why we have one team that I think fits just slightly better.
Favorites to trade for Aroldis Chapman: New York Mets
The New York Mets entered the year battered and bruised on the pitching front, with Justin Verlander starting the year in rehabilitation and Edwin Diaz going out with an injury during the World Baseball Classic.
Diaz, who was one of the best and most exciting (dare I say theatric?) closing pitchers last year, tore his patellar tendon before the season began. While he hopes to play this year, there's no telling if he'll have any delays on his timeline or if he'll be as strong of a closer right when he comes back as he was last year.
The Mets know that Chapman is good right now. Furthermore, Chapman has pitched in New York before. While the Mets perhaps don't get quite the same scrutiny as the Yankees do across town, the experience in the city and with the pressure of the big-market media is something worth rememb Keep in mind Chapman's preference has long been to stay on the East Coast of the country.
In the meantime, David Robertson has racked up nine saves for the Mets with a 0.938 WHIP. He is pitching some of the best baseball of his life, so it's tough to say how likely it is that will hold.