MLB Rumors: The Cardinals have been linked to three starting pitchers in free agency. Here's the likelihood they add any of those options.
Before the trade deadline, as the St. Louis Cardinals determined that they would be sellers, they made it abundantly clear that they would heavily pursue starting pitching in free agency.
Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has stated that he wants to add at least three starting pitchers, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today saying that the Dodgers' Julio Urias, Padres' Blake Snell and Phillies' Aaron Nola – all pending free agents – sit "atop their wish list."
Let's dive into the likelihood of all three pitchers, including the top potential trade candidate: the Seattle Mariners' Logan Gilbert.
Cardinals wish list SP target No. 4: Julio Urias
Besides Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias is arguably the top pitcher on the market.
Yes, he has struggled this season — he has a 4.15 ERA in 19 starts — but he has proven to be a frontline the last two seasons. He's been durable, throwing at least 175 innings per season, and has posted consecutive seasons with ERAs under three, with his 2.16 ERA last season being the best of his career.
Signing Urias will be expensive and considering that his agent is Scott Boras, he'll wait out the market until he receives top dollar. It's difficult to see the Cardinals winning a bidding war for Urias, especially with the Dodgers posing a serious threat to retain his services.
Will the Cardinals express interest? Of course. He also fits the left-handed arm that they have coveted in recent seasons (their previous additions Jordan Montgomery, Jon Lester, J.A. Happ and Jose Quintana were all left-handed). But a Urias to St. Louis deal feels unlikely.
Grading the fit: 3/10
Cardinals wish list SP target No. 3: Blake Snell
Between Blake Snell and Urias, Snell feels like the more plausible option. But it still feels unlikely.
Like Urias, Snell is represented by Scott Boras. Snell is also in the middle of a breakout season — a 2.65 ERA and 176 strikeouts in 136 innings — and is now challenging Urias as one of the best players on the market not named Ohtani. And that means he's in line for a massive payday.
The Cardinals typically do not get into bidding wars, which makes pursuits of Urias and Snell challenging. But their need for a starting pitcher has never been greater, especially as they attempt to win with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado on the roster.
Mozeliak and the front office will surely make a call on Snell. But it's more likely than not that the left-hander is playing elsewhere next season and beyond.
Grading the fit: 4.5/10
Cardinals wish list SP target No. 2: Aaron Nola
Leading into the regular season, Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies were engaged in contract extension talks.
Ultimately, no deal was ever close to being consummated, and the right-hander went into a contract year with no long-term deal in place. It was a risk by Nola, of course. But it was also a risk for the Phillies, who risked Nola further establishing himself as a premier right-hander, and further bolstering his value ahead of free agency.
It has not worked out that way this season, with Nola posting a 4.58 ERA and 160 strikeouts in 153.1 innings. He's allowing 1.6 homers per nine innings, which is double what it was last season, and his 94 ERA+ is the third lowest of his career.
Nola will get paid in free agency, and my expectation is he's likely to sign a new contract in Philadelphia. Especially with how much team president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski prioritizes pitching.
If the Cardinals are to land a higher-end starting pitcher in free agency, a name that makes a LOT of sense for them is Jordan Montgomery. A reunion between the two sides is one to watch.
Grading the fit: 4/10
Cardinals wish list SP target No. 1: Logan Gilbert
The Cardinals have been connected to Logan Gilbert since the trade deadline and considering their need for young, controllable starting pitching, the link makes a lot of sense.
But acquiring Gilbert, one of the most talented young pitchers in baseball who is signed through 2028, will be expensive. Really expensive. And with the Cardinals prioritizing wanting to build their farm system, acquiring Gilbert would seemingly go against that.
Perhaps their need for starting pitching forces Mozeliak and the front office to get uncomfortable and do something unprecedented. If that's the case, then all bets are off. But of all these options, Gilbert feels the most unlikely.
I think this is one that, while it's been rumored in the past, should not be something that Cardinals fans get their hopes up for at all.
Grading the fit: 3/10