Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is trailing in the crucial southern state of Karnataka in early vote counting, indicating that his ruling party could have a tough fight on its hands as it looks to win a third term in national elections next year.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party was leading in 84 seats in the 224-member assembly for which voting took place on May 10, according to NDTV 24x7 news channel. Rahul Gandhi’s opposition party, Indian National Congress, was leading in 113 seats, while the regional party Janata Dal (Secular) was ahead in 25 seats.

If the trend holds in Karnataka - home to the country’s IT hub of Bengaluru - it could set the tone for the 2024 general election by boosting the prospects of the Congress that’s been routed by the BJP in the last two national polls and indicate that issues like inflation and unemployment are hurting Modi’s party. The prime minister was one of the main campaigners as the state went to polls.

A loss in the only state in southern India where it holds power could also indicate that the BJP and its brand of Hindu nationalism have not made a significant impact in the region.

However, the verdict in the longtime swing state is not a complete barometer of the public mood in the rest of India, where Modi and his party rule a majority of states. Other provincial polls due later this year will also provide pointers to the national mood.

In Karnataka the face-off is between Modi and Gandhi, the scion of India’s famous Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty, who was convicted of making defamatory remarks about the prime minister’s last name in 2019. The conviction led to Gandhi’s ouster from parliament earlier this year.

The BJP, grappling with high prices and corruption allegations, is banking on Modi’s popularity to hold onto power in one of the country’s wealthiest states. The Congress’s campaign promises included direct cash benefits for women and free electricity.

Karnataka has been a swing state since 1985. While the BJP has won a significant number of seats here before, enough to form the government multiple times, it has never managed a clear majority.

The stakes are even higher for the Congress party, which suffered back-to-back wipeouts in the last two general elections, along with defeats in a series of recently-held state polls.

--With assistance from Akshay Chinchalkar and Anto Antony.