The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers both could close out their playoff series on Wednesday night, but they are underdogs against the New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors.
After a brutal 0-3 night on Tuesday, I'm looking to bounce back with three player props and a moneyline parlay for the Game 5 action tonight.
Let's break down the picks:
NBA best bets record to date
- NBA best bets record for 2022-23 season: 324-291-4 (+6.3171 units)
NBA best bets today
- Jalen Brunson OVER 25.5 Points (-120)
- Mitchell Robinson UNDER 6.5 Points (-135)
- LeBron James UNDER 40.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
- New York Knicks-Golden State Warriors ML Parlay (+110) – 0.5 unit
Jalen Brunson OVER 25.5 Points (-120)
Knicks star Jalen Brunson has cleared 25.5 points in four games this postseason, and he's coming off one of his best games, scoring 32 in 45 minutes in Game 4 in Miami.
The Knicks are going to play Brunson as much as he can handle, and the star guard has at least 19 shot attempts in each game in this series. New York's best chance to win is running things through Brunson.
The Heat really haven't been able to slow Brunson even though the rest of the Knicks have struggled, so I'll trust him to put the team on his back in Game 5.
Mitchell Robinson UNDER 6.5 Points (-135)
Knicks center Mitchell Robinson has scored six or fewer points in all three games since Julius Randle returned to the lineup in this series, and he has just 10 shot attempts in those three games.
That gives Robinson, a poor free-throw shooter, very little margin for error in his attempts from the field. If he isn't dominating the offensive glass (17 total rebounds in the last three games), Robinson isn't getting many looks on offense.
The Knicks may need to switch things up and go small in Game 5 to throw the Heat off, so I'll fade Robinson, who isn't much of a scorer anyway, in this prop.
LeBron James UNDER 40.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
Fading LeBron James? It's a bold strategy, but I'm betting the number here more than the player.
The four-time champion has played well this postseason, but he's failed to clear this line in seven of his 10 games.
LeBron did go OVER 40.5 PRA in Game 4, but he may not play as much in Game 5 if Golden State goes up big like it did in Game 2.
The Lakers have followed this blueprint from the first round, where they struggled in Game 5 on the road before closing things out at home.
Bron is averaging 22.6 points, 10.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game in the playoffs. He's going under this number more often than not, so I'll ride with that in Game 5.
New York Knicks-Golden State Warriors ML Parlay (+110) – 0.5 unit
- New York Knicks Moneyline (-170)
- Golden State Warriors Moneyline (-305)
This is the "Back Against the Wall" parlay.
Both the Knicks and Warriors need to win on Wednesday night to extend their series, and I like both home teams to get the job done.
Golden State is 28-10 all-time in the Steph Curry era following a loss in the playoffs, and the Warriors were also 33-8 at home this season. I expect them to bring the urgency they had in Game 2 to extend this series.
As for the Knicks, the team is going to have raucous Madison Square Garden behind them, and they've gone 3-1 at home in these playoffs.
Miami has outplayed the Knicks in this series, but New York may decide to run Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle as much as possible to stay in this game. I like the Knicks to come away with a win.
—
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.