NBA best bets today (Predictions for Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis and more in Nuggets-Lakers Game 4)

2023-05-23 02:16

NBA fans may be getting their last glimpse at the Western Conference Finals on Monday night, as the Denver Nuggets are one win away from closing out the Los Angeles Lakers.While I’d like to see this series extended so we get more basketball, I’m not bold enough to bet on a side tonig...

NBA fans may be getting their last glimpse at the Western Conference Finals on Monday night, as the Denver Nuggets are one win away from closing out the Los Angeles Lakers.

While I'd like to see this series extended so we get more basketball, I'm not bold enough to bet on a side tonight. Instead, I have three prop picks for the NBA best bets card on Monday:

NBA best bets record to date

NBA best bets record for 2022-23 season: 339-302-4 (+7.5417 units)

NBA best bets today

Nikola Jokic OVER 50.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-140)
Anthony Davis OVER 3.5 Steals and Blocks (-115)

Nikola Jokic OVER 50.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)

This line is where Nikola Jokic's PRA was set in Game 1 when he smashed that number for the Nuggets, scoring 34 points and grabbing 21 rebounds in a monster triple-double performance.

In the last nine playoff games for Jokic, he's cleared 50.5 PRA in all but two of them:

Jokic vs. Phoenix Suns

Game 1: 48 PRA
Game 2: 60 PRA
Game 3: 64 PRA
Game 4: 68 PRA
Game 5: 54 PRA
Game 6: 54 PRA

Jokic vs. Lakers

Game 1: 69 PRA
Game 2: 52 PRA
Game 3: 38 PRA

It's worth noting that he was in foul trouble in Game 3 against Los Angeles, and I simply can't pass up the overreaction to his numbers in that game.

The Joker could push another triple-double in Game 4.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-140)

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has now made multiple shots from beyond the arc in four straight playoff games, taking 25 shots from deep in those contests.

I don't mind a play on KCP's points prop (10.5), but we know he's going to see looks from deep with the Lakers focusing in on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

Caldwell-Pope has made his former team pay in this series, shooting 9-for-20 from beyond the arc. I'll ride with him to stay hot in Game 4.

Anthony Davis OVER 3.5 Steals and Blocks (-115)

I think we're getting a little value on this prop after Anthony Davis fell short of it in Game 3.

In the playoffs, Davis has at least four steals and blocks in 11 of his 15 games averaging 3.1 blocks and 1.4 steals per contest.

The Nuggets only turned the ball over six times in Game 3, which contributed to Davis' low steal numbers, but he still picked up two blocks in the loss. I expect a bounce-back game from AD in a must-win for Los Angeles.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.