The 2023 NBA Draft threw more than a few surprises our way. Here are the five most promising early candidates for Rookie of the Year.
The 2023 NBA Draft is officially in the rearview mirror, which means teams will now shift their focus to the summer ahead. Free agency, trades, summer league, training camp — it's all coming right around the corner.
While Victor Wembanyama is the obvious headliner, last night featured several high-upside prospects landing in great situations. There were also plenty of surprises, some exhilarating, others disappointing.
We already graded every pick, but with the focus now shifting to the 2023-24 NBA season, which incoming rookies are set up for immediate success?
When predicting future Rookie of the Year candidates, it's hard not to focus on the lottery picks. There's a guaranteed spotlight and workload for someone drafted in the top 10 that just doesn't really apply to prospects in the back half of the first round or the second round. That said, the All-Rookie teams are never chalk, so rest assured that someone will outperform expectations and sneak into this conversation.
Some honorable mentions: Detroit's Ausar Thompson, OKC's Cason Wallace, Charlotte's Nick Smith Jr., Golden State's Brandin Podziemski, and Utah's Keyonte George. All five feel like reasonable bets based on various factors but don't quite crack the top-five. If you want a second-round sleeper, Andre Jackson of Milwaukee feels like a guy who will scrap his way to minutes for a contender.
2023 NBA Draft: No. 5 Rookie of the Year candidate, Brandon Miller
The Charlotte Hornets disappointed the fanbase and the broader NBA Draft community with the decision to select Brandon Miller over Scoot Henderson with the No. 2 overall pick. While he fits better with LaMelo Ball at first glance as a 6-foot-9 wing, Henderson is actually the better basketball fit (and overall prospect) due to his ability to put pressure on the rim, score at all three levels, and consistently create for teammates.
The idea of LaMelo as this ball-dominant point guard is wildly misguided. He's frankly better suited to sharing the backcourt with another ball-handler of Scoot's variety, which can unlock LaMelo's shooting and penchant for connective, rapid-fire passing.
Alas, Miller is the pick and he will immediately incur a significant role in the Charlotte offense. While he was only the No. 7 prospect on the FanSided board, there's still plenty for Hornets fans to be excited about. Miller is an elite shooter for his size, off the catch or pulling up. He also makes some impressive passes out of pick-and-rolls and could develop into a sturdy playmaker to ease Ball's workload and bolster the halfcourt offense.
Miller can struggle at the rim and he doesn't have the most explosive first step, which can lead to struggles generating space against high-level defenders. There are legitimate questions about his ability to develop into a go-to scorer in line with expectations at the No. 2 pick, but there's always value in tall, versatile shooters and Miller will have plenty of reps next season to make his case for Rookie of the Year.
2023 NBA Draft: No. 4 Rookie of the Year candidate, Jarace Walker
The Pacers pulled a rabbit out of the hat, trading back one spot from No. 7 to No. 8 to acquire two future second-round picks while still getting the guy everyone thought they wanted in Houston's Jarace Walker. And he's a tremendous fit on both ends for an Indiana team not far from playoff contention in the East.
Walker and Myles Turner will immediately form one of the most intimidating defensive backlines in the NBA. Turner is a perennial candidate to lead the league in blocked shots; Walker can comfortably switch 1-5 while handling physical matchups in the post and offering weak-side rim protection of his own.
The defensive upside alone makes Walker a home-run selection in the No. 8 spot, but he was the No. 5 prospect on the FanSided board because his upside stretches to both ends of the floor. Walker is a very talented face-up scorer capable of leveraging his brute strength and balletic footwork for impressive finishes around the rim.
Indiana should get plenty of mileage out of Walker as a pick-and-roll partner for Tyrese Haliburton. Meanwhile, he has flashed shooting range out to the 3-point line and he's one of the best frontcourt passers in the draft. If he can make defenders close out to the perimeter, Walker will wreak havoc as a driver with heads-up playmaking skill. The two-man actions with Walker and Haliburton or Mathurin should pay dividends for the Pacers.
Walker feels like a rookie who won't take long to impact winning in the NBA. The Pacers need to stay healthy, but the team was on track for a playoff berth last season before injuries struck. Haliburton makes everyone around him better and Walker does all the little things to win over fans and award voters alike.
2023 NBA Draft: No. 3 Rookie of the Year candidate, Amen Thompson
The Rockets were beneficiaries of the league's 3-and-D obsession, which is the broad strokes reason for Brandon Miller leapfrogging so many superior prospects to land at No. 2. The resulting fallout left Amen Thompson on the board at No. 4, the easy correct call for Houston.
If James Harden shocks everyone and returns to Houston, Thompson's Rookie of the Year odds will take a hit. He's a ball-dominant playmaker who doesn't shoot 3s, especially not spotting up, so his fit with Harden would be murky at best. He's the best athlete in the NBA and he would find ways to contribute ducking in for dunks or running the floor in transition, but Harden would take up a lot of oxygen offensively.
Assuming that doesn't happen, Thompson is a clear top-3 candidate for Rookie of the Year. He's the best athlete on the board and the best passer, capable of performing wizardry at full sprint to collapse the defense and locate open teammates. He doesn't shoot yet, but he's virtually impossible to keep out of the paint and his ability to change speed and direction off the dribble is unmatched at 6-foot-7. He's a plus-plus handler and passer and athlete. If the shot ever comes around even a little bit, we're talking perennial All-Star.
The Rockets will make big overtures to veteran free agents whether or not Harden returns, but Thompson should be handed the keys to the car. He forms the most athletic backcourt in the NBA alongside Jalen Green and the Rockets added Cam Whitmore (another explosive downhill driver and top-6 prospect) for good measure. Thompson will pressure the rim, move and cut around Alperen Sengun post-ups, and give Houston the offensive table-setter the team has long lacked.
Woo, the Rockets are going to be lots of fun. Thompson will make all the key pieces on that roster better.
2023 NBA Draft: No. 2 Rookie of the Year candidate, Scoot Henderson
The Blazers were big winners with Scoot Henderson inexplicably falling into their lap. There has been debate all summer over the merits of Brandon Miller as a challenger to Henderson's preordained status as the Wembanyama consolation prize, but that never held much weight here (even if it evidently did in Charlotte). Henderson has been No. 2 on the FanSided board all season, with Amen Thompson being the only prospect close to resembling a challenger to that status.
Henderson steps into murky waters with the Blazers' franchise in particular. The Damain Lillard situation looms large. Does he stay? If he does say, what win-now pieces could get in Henderson's way. How does his workload shake out if both Lillard and Anfernee Simons are still with the team next season?
Despite those questions, Henderson is the early No. 2 bet for Rookie of the Year. He will be ready to go day one with elite physical strength for his age and a mature, seek-and-destroy attitude. He doesn't get rattled by the moment and he makes it his personal mission to make the opponent miserable. There is definite defensive potential tied to his bulky frame and 6-foot-8 wingspan. The offensive production will come naturally as long as he's on the floor.
If the Blazers end up trading Lillard, then Henderson will be free to blossom as the full-stop leader of Portland's offense. He's explosive downhill with pull-up shooting range out to the 3-point line. The consistency of his jumper wavered at times last season, but Henderson has soft touch, clean footwork, and projectable mechanics. He will pressure the rim and frequently collapse the defense, a potent attribute when one considers Damian Lillard's singular gravity behind the 3-point line.
With Lillard aging into the twilight of his stardom, perhaps taking on more off-ball duties while Henderson initiates the offense would be beneficial. Simons feels like the odd man out in that scenario, but he's big enough to share the court in super small three-guard lineups and the Blazers will have no trouble scoring. Defense is the bigger concern, but when has that ever stopped someone from winning Rookie of the Year when the buckets are flowing?
2023 NBA Draft: No. 1 Rookie of the Year candidate, Victor Wembanyama
The Spurs will feast like champions tonight and forevermore. Victor Wembanyama is the best basketball prospect since LeBron James. He has the chance to change the fortunes of San Antonio, joining a franchise with a unique history of No. 1 pick bigs. Wembanyama is already expected to phone Tim Duncan once he arrives in Texas.
The main roadblock between Wembanyama and Rookie of the Year is probably load management. The new collective bargaining agreement stipulates that players must participate in 65 games in order to qualify for awards. The Spurs are expected to be cautious with Wemby's health, but it's hard to imagine even the most cautious approach leading to 18 missed games unless injury strikes.
Wembanyama has worked harder than most to get ahead of the curve when it comes to injury prevention. The Spurs, meanwhile, have the pieces to potentially contend sooner than later if Wemby delivers on his superstar hype. Devin Vassell is a very real No. 2, while players like Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan should look great in streamlined roles. The Spurs also have a lot of money to burn in free agency. Wemby will have the numbers, and he might have the wins to back up a Rookie of the Year case too.
The 19-year-old from Nanterre, France was the MVP of a top-five league in the world last season. He dominated professional competition across the board and led his team to the championship round. He is as proven as NBA rookies come.
At 7-foot-5, Wembanyama is not only capable of creating his own shot at all three levels. He's highly adaptive and flexible, capable of operating as a play-creator or play-finisher depending on the personnel around him. On the defensive end, he's the best rim protection prospect in ages and he figures to revamp the Spurs' dreadful defense after last season.
Assuming he's on the court, it's hard to imagine anybody surpassing Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year. The Spurs are about to have the most exciting young player in basketball.
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