I'm becoming a victim of my stubbornness in the NHL Conference Finals.
Despite thinking the Hurricanes and Stars are the superior teams, I'm 0-7 betting on them with both of them failing to win a single game. The Hurricanes were eliminated on Wednesday night and the Stars are one loss away from also being sent home.
I once again have a moneyline bet and a player prop for tonight's action. I continue to refuse to learn from my mistakes so I'll once again be backing the Stars.
NHL Playoff betting record
- 42-40-1 (+0.96 units)
Best NHL bets for tonight
- Stars -115 vs. Golden Knights
- Jake Oettinger UNDER 25.5 saves (-108)
Stars -115 vs. Golden Knights
Despite the 0-3 series deficit, the Stars have been arguably outplaying the Golden Knights throughout the series. For example, if you look at expected goals per 60 minutes, the Stars have the advantage at 3.12 compared to 2.3 for the Golden Knights.
They're also averaging 1.33 more high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes.
No matter the advanced metric you look at, the Stars are outperforming the Golden Knights. The biggest difference in this series has been goaltending, with Jake Oettinger of the Stars largely being disappointing all postseason.
With that being said, I'm going to trust he can have a bounce back game tonight and keep the Stars in the series.
I'll back Dallas as a slight home favorite tonight.
Jake Oettinger UNDER 25.5 saves (-108)
There's two ways we can win this bet. One way is for Oettinger to continue to struggle like he has all season. That will result in either him getting pulled early like he did in Game 3, or for he stays in the net and doesn't stop enough shots for him to go over his save total.
The other way we can win this bet is for the Stars to lock things down defensively like they did plenty of times throughout the regular season. They're allowing only 25.28 shots on goal per game in this series, so if they can keep the same pace, we're in a great spot to win this bet.
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