As the New York Mets come to terms with a selling mentality, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are on the trade block.
It's been a disappointing season for the New York Mets, but the team is in a decent position to retool for the 2024 campaign, should they make the right decisions.
Trading the likes of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer — two pitchers in their 40's chasing a ring — would be wise. In terms of pure numbers, Scherzer has had a down year by his standards, and the Mets may have to eat some of his contract in order to secure a decent return. Verlander, however, has come on of late, featuring a 3.47 ERA and five straight starts of at least five innings and three or less runs allowed.
No-trade clauses certainly complicate the situation at hand. But both aces can be persuaded in the right situation. These Mets are an unlikely postseason threat. Why not spend their final years playing for a surefire contender, rather than wasting away in Queens?
It'll take some convincing.
MLB Rumors: A Mets-Astros trade for Max Scherzer
As familiar as Justin Verlander is with Houston, he chose to left the Astros this offseason for a reason. A return feels unlikely at this juncture. However, the Astros need pitching, leading us to the natural fit of Max Scherzer.
In this trade, the Mets would acquire Melton — the No. 2 prospect in the Houston system — along with Whitley and Baez. Whitley has dropped significantly down the Astros prospect rankings due to injury and big-league struggles. He'd be an instant project in New York. Baez is only 19 years old and inked a $1.2 million international signing bonus. Clearly, the Astros see something in him and he's due to rise up the ranks in the years to come.
Frankly, it's not a steep ask, as the Mets are trading away a former Cy Young winner and another top deadline candidate in Canha for no top-100 prospects, as Houston's system is rather weak.
MLB Rumors: A Dodgers-Mets trade for Justin Verlander
The Dodgers have slightly more to offer New York than, say, the Houston Astros. Los Angeles has a strong farm system, which is why they would target the better starting pitcher in this scenario. For the Mets, it makes all the sense in the world to trade Verlander if he's willing to waive his no-trade clause. JV has an extra year on his deal, making him more valuable. He could also lead the Dodgers on a postseason run.
I'm big on pairing Canha with either of these pitchers in part because it increases their trade value, and the likelihood of receiving a top-100 prospect in return. In this case, the Mets would receive a proven major leaguer in Pepiot who is just 25 years old. Pepiot has started seven games this season and has a 3.47 ERA. He's also ranked among the top-100 prospects in MLB. Vivas is a flyer, but MLB ready if the Mets need more infield depth after trading away Canha. Munoz, meanwhile, is just 18 years old and an intriguing international prospect. He's already raking at the lower levels of the Dodgers system despite being ranked 26th per MLB Pipeline.
MLB Rumors: A Diamondbacks-Mets trade for Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer spent the first two years of his MLB career with the Arizona Diamondbacks before he was traded to the Detroit Tigers, where his journey really started. Scherzer was part of a three-team trade which sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson to Arizona, and Austin Jackson, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke to the Motor City. Scherzer wouldn't look back.
The Diamondbacks are contending again, however, and have a 4.60 team ERA. Something's gotta give, and acquiring a familiar face in Scherzer can only help matters.
Arizona has a strong farm system, and they're not going to give up a top-100 prospect in exchange for a half-season of Scherzer, even in the midst of a postseason run. However, De Los Santos is about as close to top-100 as the Mets can get. He's only 20 years old and already in Double-A.
Should the Mets see fit, he also provides a big bat to either replace Pete Alonso when his contract runs up, play designated hitter or even slot in at third base. A corner outfield spot could be a possibility if New York were to ask De Los Santos to switch positions, as he's still early enough in his development.
Martinez is a Triple-A arm who does have some MLB experience (though it didn't go well). If New York can unlock his stuff, perhaps he can serve as a long-relief arm, or back of the rotation option eventually.
MLB Rumors: Orioles need pitching. Why not Justin Verlander?
Word on the street is that the Orioles will not trade for Shohei Ohtani, instead making incremental improvements to their roster. Baltimore needs pitching, which is why I've linked them to Verlander in this case. Marcus Stroman, among others, make sense as an ace-level starter who can lead them to the postseason, but perhaps won't cost then entire farm system.
Verlander does have a no-trade clause, and waiving that to move from New York to Baltimore may seem counterproductive. However, Verlander has another year left on his current deal. If he wants to play for a contending team close to his (new) home in NYC, the O's make some sense.
Baltimore is loaded with prospects, so much so that they'd almost be forced to part ways with a top-100 player.
This may seem like a lot, but beyond Norby, the other two prospects rank outside the Orioles top-15 per MLB Pipeline. Norby is a top-70 prospect in all of baseball and can play multiple positions. He is 23 years old, so he's nearing the MLB level and should compete for a spot in spring training.
Because Norby is involved in this trade, I'm including Canha in the deal heading back the other way. While he may be a bench bat in Baltimore, he adds value to a contending team in the postseason because of his positional versatility.
Several seasons of Justin Verlander is worth this return, even if he depreciates in value a bit as he reaches his twilight years.