Who are the sleepers at the 2023 British Open that could win at Royal Liverpool? Let's break down our Open Championship dark horse picks and longshots.
Pack your bags for Royal Liverpool Golf Club this week, either literally or figuratively, as we are heading to famed Hoylake for the 2023 Open Championship, the fourth and final major championship on the golf calendar. As the book will shut on major season, fans are pining for a phenomenal test of links golf.
Make no mistake, many of the favorites are the big storylines. Rory McIlroy looks to redeem his St. Andrews heartbreak and get the major championship monkey off his back, Scottie Scheffler looks for a second major crown, Cam Smith looks to repeat, Viktor Hovland searches for his first major title, and many more.
But you can never forget about the sleepers and longshots. So how do we go about finding our Open Championship dark horse picks?
Well, we don't have too much recent history with sleepers winning The Open Championship. Cam Smith was a measly +2000 last year, while Collin Morikawa was a bit longer at 40-1. Shane Lowry before him in 2019 was also a bit long at 50-1, but Francesco Molinari was just 28-1 when he won in 2018.
So where does that leave us? It leaves us due for a longshot to become Champion Golfer of the Year. With that, let's break down our Open Championship dark horse picks for 2023 at Royal Liverpool, all of whom have odds of 80-1 or longer but could absolutely win at Hoylake.
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. All longshot bets are for 0.1 units. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
Open Championship dark horse picks: 5 sleepers and longshots who could win
5. Brian Harman (+11000)
Over the last couple of years, you might not have noticed, but Brian Harman has been sneaky good when it comes to traveling across the pond for The Open Championship. He finished T6 at St. Andrews last year but was also T19 at Royal St. George's as well.
Now, he comes to Hoylake displaying some impressive form. He was fine at the US Open, but faded late to a T43 finish. Since then, however, he's finished T2 at Travelers, T9 at Rocket Mortgage, and T12 at the Scottish Open.
On a course that, if it dries out, could run out big time in the fairways, the accurate driver who is great throughout the bag on approach could be live to make some noise. He's proven that he can thrive when it comes to the British Open and this could be another spot where he pops given his quality recent form.
4. Robert Macintyre (+9000)
Call it being prisoner of the moment after Robert Macintyre almost took the title at his home national open in Scotland last week before Rory McIlroy ripped his heart out, but the Scotsman is definitely trending heading into the major that he has often played well in his young-ish career.
Macintyre has played in each of the last three Open Championship tournaments and has made the cut in all three, including registering Top 10 finishes in both 2019 and 2021 as well. More importantly, he's starting to trend. The results are there with an outright second at the Scottish Open following a T4 in his previous tournament.
The game is clearly in a good spot and Macintyre obviously has the goods when it comes to this style of golf. He's gaining in every strokes gained category, including popping on approach, over his last 16 rounds and can't be ruled out to redeem his heartbreak last week with a win.
3. Si Woo Kim (+12000)
As always, Si Woo Kim is a massive risk because you never know what he's going to deliver on a given day, much less a given week. Having said that, you have to be intrigued with his ability to pop combined with his talent.
Just last year at St. Andrews, Kim submitted his best Open Championship performance yet as he put up a T15 finish at this tournament. In his three previous starts, he had two missed cuts and a finish outside the Top 60. But now he comes in striking the ball extremely well from tee-to-green, but with the putter being ice cold over his last 16 measured rounds.
This is definitely a flier on a longshot, but Kim continues to intrigue with the upside he consistently displays as he looks to build off a good British Open finish last year as he comes in displaying solid form — he just needs to the flat stick to cooperate.
2. Ryan Fox (+12000)
It's actually a bit shocking that the big-hitting Ryan Fox hasn't been better when it comes to The Open Championship, even if he has indeed elevated his game more recently. In the last five British Opens, Fox has two missed cuts and his best finish is only T16 with no other in the Top 35 either. That's not ideal.
Having said that, Royal Liverpool has some loose comparisons to what it takes to succeed at courses like Quail Hollow and even LACC. Being long off of the tee and good with long approaches is key and Fox has that in his game.
Fox has faded outside the Top 20 at the US Open and PGA Championship, but he's still popped at times. With the way his game should fit links golf, I'm intrigued with the results he could produce this week at Hoylake.
1. Min Woo Lee (+8000)
Say what you will about the overall inconsistency of Min Woo Lee, but when the lights have been bright this year, he's shown up. Notably, the enigmatic Australian finished T5 at the US Open and also notched a Top 20 at the PGA Championship. Oh yeah, he was also T21 at The Open Championship a year ago as well.
Lee definitely needs to be a little more reliable on approach as he's actually lost strokes in that department over the last 16 rounds. He's gaining big time in the other three major categories, though, which is why I'm still on him when you also look at his major record this year.
It does feel somewhat as if we're nearing a true breakout win for a budding star when it comes to Min Woo Lee and things are shaping up at Royal Liverpool for this perhaps to be the place where that happens.
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