Projecting regular season rotations before the games start is more art than science. Players step up and carve out roles for themselves, injuries take their toll, opening up opportunities for others. All this makes it hard to make accurate predictions for Sixth Man of the Year so far in advance — a player must start less than half of the games in which they appear, adding a layer of complexity you don't have in projecting things like MVP and Rookie of the Year where impact is the only thing that matters.
Still, here are a handful of high-scoring players likely to spend most of their time coming off the bench, but put up impressive enough stats for impressive enough teams to get themselves in the Sixth Man of the Year conversation before the season is over.
5. Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings
Monk may actually have had a better chance at Sixth Man of the Year last season, when he averaged 13.5 points, 3.9 assists and 2.6 rebounds per game off the Kings bench. Sacramento has brought in some additional pieces — Chris Duarte, Sasha Vezenkov — which may result in tighter bench rotations. In addition, expectations will be higher on the Kings this season and simply replicating last season's success may not be enough for the Kings or for Monk to generate the same kind of enthusiasm from award voters.
But there's also a strong case to be made that Monk has a lot more to offer. He's still just 25 years old and this will be the first time in his career he's been a core, consistent part of a team's rotation for two consecutive seasons.
And, as good as he was last season, Monk can been better. He made just 35.6 percent of his 3s last season after making 39.4 percent over the previous two. He drew 207 free throw attempts last season, more than the two previous seasons combined and he's still learning how to leverage his athleticism and driving ability from the weakside, off dribble hand-offs and against a defense that's already been bent out of shape.
Monk has a lot more to offer and if we see it this season he should absolutely be in the Sixth Man of the Year conversation at the end of the year.
4. Cam Thomas, Brooklyn Nets
Cam Thomas has been desperately crying out for an opportunity. He began his career in the middle of the Kevin Durant - Kyrie Irving mess but has done nothing but get buckets at every opportunity.
After Kyrie Irving was traded, Thomas went on a tear and scored 40+ in three consecutive games. But it wasn't long before additional trades were made, the rotation was shuffled and his minutes were cut. He played less than 10 minutes in eight of the 13 games he appeared in across March and April. With the outcome of the season decided, he was cut loose in the final game and went for 46 points.
To be fair, he's not a very good defender. He can get tunnel vision. And while he has upside as a creator for others he recorded almost as many turnovers (63) as assists (78) last season. What he does, is get buckets.
Even with his inconsistent playing time last year, Thomas averaged 22.9 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists per 36 minutes, shooting 38.3 percent from beyond the arc. He can hit pull-up jumpers from everywhere, and thrives getting downhill and attacking the rim. He led the Nets in scoring during the preseason and will, in theory, be one of the first guards off the bench with Dennis Smith Jr.
The Nets have a ton of solid complementary wings, the bones of a fantastic defense but just one reliable offensive creator — Mikal Bridges. If they're going to make an impact this season, they'll need someone like Thomas who can consistently put pressure on the defense, make tough shots and create easy ones for others.
3. Rui Hachimura, Los Angeles Lakers
Hachimura was essential to the Lakers' playoff run and, in the process, earned himself a hefty new contract this summer. However, he's going to begin the season coming off the bench, with Darvin Ham reportedly preferring Taurean Prince's defense in the starting lineup and Hachimura's offense game helping anchor the second unit.
I am, admittedly, a bit concerned that his postseason shooting has been overvalued. Hachimura shot under 30 percent from beyond the arc in the 33 regular season games after getting traded to the Lakers and has made just 34.4 percent of his career 3-pointers. But he hit a whopping 48.7 in the postseason last year and helped open up everything for the Lakers' offense.
Hachimura was working out with LeBron James this summer, and reportedly has his earned his trust and support. The rest of his offensive tools — the pull-up mid-range game, the ability to face-up against bigger players and back down smaller ones — don't really have an established track record either. But LeBron and the Lakers are sold and if he can get buckets off the bench for aguably the highest-profile team in the league he should absolutely have a shot at this award.
2. Caris LeVert, Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers spent this offseason looking for upgraded shooting on the wing but that was likely a lot more about the shortcomings of Cedi Osman and Isaac Okoro than LeVert.
LeVert averaged 12.1 points, 3.9 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.0 steals per game, shooting 39.2 percent from beyond the arc. He struggled during the playoffs but was good enough to dissuade the Cavs from trading him at the deadline and earning a new two-year, $32 million contract this summer.
The biggest barrier for LeVert may be getting below the games started threshold — he started 30 of the 74 games he appeared in last season. But his creation upside probably sets up Max Strus to be the starter this year with LeVert as the first player off the bench, spelling Darius Garland or Donovan Mitchell and keeping at least two creators and floor-spacers on the floor at all times.
The Cavaliers could be one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this season, challenging the Celtics and Bucks for supremacy with elite defense and Garland, Mitchell and LeVert carrying the load on offense. If he steps up and the Cavs are winning, he will almost certainly be in the conversation.
1. Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics
Payton Pritchard reportedly wanted out from the Celtics last season, desperate for a chance to actually get on the floor and play consistent minutes. But Boston held onto him and with Marcus Smart gone, there is finally a path for the slick-shooting, energetic guard to carve out a role for himself.
Even in his limited minutes, Pritchard has demonstrated what he can do. He's made 40 percent of his career 3-pointers and has shown he can be a steady pull-up shooter, with just enough craft and bust to make himself a viable three-level scorer. His scoring efficiency was well above average last season as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll and he knows how to attack a defense.
Pritchard got plenty of run in the preseason — averaging 15.6 points and 4.8 assists per game, shooting 36.2 percent from beyond the arc — and will begin the season as the primary back-up point guard to Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. His comfort level on and off the ball opens a pathway to even more minutes and there's a chance he can off consistent scoring pop off the bench. If he's averaging 12-15 points off the bench for, perhaps, the best team in the Eastern Conference, he could very well find him the frontrunner for Sixth Man of the Year.