The full Green Bay Packers schedule has dropped, so we're predicting every game and the Packers record for the 2023 season as the Jordan Love era begins.
The fact of the matter is that the Green Bay Packers present a complete unknown in the 2023 NFL season. We haven't seen this team without Aaron Rodgers at quarterback in almost two full decades, and it was Brett Favre before that. So as Jordan Love takes the reins, things could go any number of ways this season.
But what if things go poorly?
The Packers schedule for the 2023 season leaked early, so we know what the road through the year looks like for Green Bay — and it could be a doozie, especially for a team with a first-time starter in Love along with a defense that has underperformed under coordinator Joe Barry and a group of skill position players that, outside of Aaron Jones and half a season from Christian Watson, is unproven.
So while things could break right, let's take a look at what the worst-case scenario for Green Bay is this year as we run through Packers game-by-game predictions for the 2023 season and see what their final record ends up at if things don't go as hoped.
Green Bay Packers schedule 2023: Worst-case game-by-game predictions, Weeks 1-2
Aaron Rodgers owned the Bears throughout his career, which he gladly told the fans in Chicago. So now Jordan Love gets his first crack at them with a Week 1 trip to the Windy City.
Overall, I'm high on what the Bears are building, particularly on offense. Having said that, I expect the new pieces around Justin Fields to take some time to gel, which could mean some early stumbles. Most importantly, though, I don't trust the Chicago defense with the overall lack of talent, in the front seven particularly, to be enough to stop Aaron Jones and the Packers offense.
Remember the talk we had about Joe Barry and this Packers defense? I think we get a bad sign for what's to come in Week 2 with the trip to Atlanta to face the Falcons. Make no mistake, the Falcons offense could be a problem again. But this offense, assuming Desmond Ridder is at least competent, is absolutely loaded after drafting Bijan Robinson in the first round to go with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and so on.
Love and Green Bay should get some points on the board but, if the defense shows early bad signs, they won't find enough answers to outscore the Falcons.
Green Bay Packers schedule 2023: Worst-case game-by-game predictions, Weeks 3-5
One thing that can't be underestimated is how much of an upgrade Derek Carr is from whatever Andy Dalton was last season in New Orleans. So once again, the Packers suspect defense is tested in the worst-case scenario.
Where this matchup, the home opener at Lambeau, differs from the Atlanta game, though, is that I have a lot more faith in Dennis Allen and the Saints defense than I do the Falcons. As such, even at home, I think this is the first time we see the youth and inexperience of Jordan Love really come to light and he can't do enough to pick up the win.
After the 1-2 start to the season in this worst-case scenario, it will be a short week for Green Bay as they welcome in the rival Lions, the team I have pegged as the favorites in the NFC North as of right now. While Jared Goff's ceiling might be limited, Ben Johnson is a phenomenal offensive coordinator and the talent around the quarterback is booming. With the defense aggressively improving the talent level this offseason too, this would be an ugly game for the Pack if they are having trouble finding their way early.
Yes, I firmly believe that the Raiders needed to make a change at quarterback. But the simple truth of the matter is that the Las Vegas defense is still wholly problematic with concerns at basically every level right now, even with bringing in Tyree Wilson through the draft.
On top of that, I'm not convinced that Josh McDaniels is a good head coach and, as such, his offense is affected negatively when he's in that role. Jimmy Garoppolo isn't the answer long term and perhaps not short term either and, while Davante Adams will try to stick it to his former team, the Packers are just better, giving them a win and a 2-3 record heading into a Week 6 bye.
Green Bay Packers schedule 2023: Worst-case game-by-game predictions, Weeks 6-9
Coming out of their bye in Week 6, the Packers stay with the AFC West opponents and go on the road to the elevation in Denver. We all know that Russell Wilson was a disaster in his first season with the Broncos, but my belief is that Sean Payton is going to deploy a lot of what made him good in Seattle, namely letting Russ cook less and focusing on the ground game. I think the Packers will have a problem stopping that and Denver sends a message at home with a narrow victory.
Kirk Cousins has been the butt of a lot of jokes but, with him not being in primetime for this game, even in Lambeau Field, Joe Barry's defense is going to have a real problem stopping what the Vikings quarterback is going to want to do in this game.
Furthermore, Minnesota made a big effort this offseason to change up the defense, perhaps most notably bringing in Brian Flores as defensive coordinator. Flores is a great mind and, against a young quarterback still early in his first season as QB1 for the Packers, Love is going to struggle to contend with that, giving Green Bay another tough NFC North loss.
With Matthew Stafford at least healthier than he has been, with Cooper Kupp back in the fold, and seemingly with some normalcy back in the offense, I expect Sean McVay to be able to scheme up a solid offense.
The Rams might be the worst defense in the NFL, though. After the Jalen Ramsey trade, when you get past Aaron Donald on the depth chart, you're either an enormous Rams fan or a draft nerd (said respectfully with admiration, not disdain) if you know more than four other players on the defense. Jordan Love will have one of his best games of the season in a close shootout win.
Green Bay Packers schedule 2023: Worst-case game-by-game predictions, Weeks 10-12
There could not be a bigger contrast for the Packers than playing the Rams defense in Lambeau to then going on the road to definitely-not-still-Heinz Field and playing this Steelers defense.
For what it's worth, I'm still not totally sold on Kenny Pickett. But I do believe that the offense will be improved after bolstering the offensive line with Broderick Jones and some free agent additions. That will be more than enough to get the job done against this poorly schemed defense under Barry as Love will follow up his best game of the year with one of his worst against the vaunted Steelers defense.
Considering it feels like every season that the Chargers get extremely hyped up but then fail to live up to those expectations, it's always hard to know what to do with Justin Herbert and Co. in any predictions. However, the one thing I know for certain is that Herbert and this offense can cook, which I wholly expect them to against Joe Barry's defense, particularly with a big game from Austin Ekeler.
Jordan Love should be able to attack this secondary as he starts to progress and show more polish with experience, but it won't be enough to get the win at home.
Another short week for the Packers, even shorter this time as they go on the road for the early Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit for the second meeting with the Lions.
As Love is progressing, I once again expect to see him do some good things, particularly against a Lions defense that is notably improved but also still not in its final form. At the same time, though, I still don't see the world in which Green Bay has nearly enough defensive answers for the potent Detroit offense, which will push the Lions to a sweep of their NFC North rivals to celebrate the holiday.
Green Bay Packers schedule 2023: Worst-case game-by-game predictions, Weeks 13-15
Even with the improvements that I'm expecting from Jordan Love as the season progresses, I have every reason to believe that this will get ugly against the Chiefs in Week 13.
Given what we've established about the defense just not being well coached under Barry, Patrick Mahomes is going to obviously cook. But this will also be a learning game for Love as Steve Spagnuolo throws an abundance of funky looks at the young quarterback, forcing him into a bevy of mistakes. The end result is now a blowout loss.
While Brian Daboll has proven that he's a good coach, I do think that his success in year one with the Giants has a lot of people overestimating New York in the 2023 season. This team still has major deficiencies on both sides of the ball that I don't think are all shored up after this offseason.
This is going to be a big game for Jordan Love and Aaron Jones as I expect both to attack the middle of the field well. While Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley can somewhat combat that, I don't have enough faith in the Giants QB to think he can make the plays to win this game.
Outside of the Cardinals, there's probably not a worse team in the league entering the 2023 season than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They struggled overall last year when they had Tom Brady, and now they've downgraded to likely Baker Mayfield under center. Put simply, that's not going to go well. With defensive losses as well, even in the worst-case scenario, Love should cruise to the win in pretty emphatic fashion.
Green Bay Packers schedule 2023: Worst-case game-by-game predictions, Weeks 16-18
Another NFC South matchup and the Packers should like this matchup as well. For as high as I am on Bryce Young and his future in the NFL — and thinking that he's the right man for the Panthers — I'm still not sold on the offense around the No. 1 pick outside of a good O-line. The Panthers defense does look pretty stout, which should make this game a bit of a slugfest. Overall, though, the Packers just have a better roster and the talent should ultimately help them squeak out the win in Week 16.
I know, I know. It's Kirk Cousins in primetime, so we have to basically just give Green Bay the win, right?
Well, if we're going worst-case scenario, that would certainly include the defense being bad enough that we're not going to see the same dud that Cousins often lays in this particular type of spot. Instead, the Joe Barry defense will have no answers for all of the Vikings weapons while Flores will once again get after Love and cause him to make key mistakes in Minnesota that drops Green Bay to 0-4 against the Lions and Vikings on the year.
We're not going too far with the doom and gloom for Green Bay this year by finishing the season with back-to-back losses to the Vikings and Bears.
Much like in Week 1, I don't see the Bears defense having enough answers simply for the reason that the Packers have too much talent on the offensive line and should control that area of the game, giving Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon and even Love all the time and space they need. But I do believe Justin Fields and the offense will have progressed over this time, which will ultimately put them in a position to fight in this game tooth-and-nail. But the Pack pulls out the season-ending win.
Green Bay Packers record prediction in 2023 worst-case scenario
Look, even if things don't go the way that the Packers are hoping, particularly with Jordan Love and Joe Barry, there is simply too much talent on the roster when it comes to the defense, the running backs, and the offensive line for this team to completely hit rock bottom, even if this is the proverbial worst-case scenario.
All told, the worst-case scenario for this team breaks down pretty simply. Despite having players like Jaire Alexander, Quay Walker, and Rashan Gary (once he returns) on the defense, Barry has not proven he's a good coordinator and, if more evidence mounts that he's actually bad at his job, this defense will once again have a propensity for getting shredded.
What's more, it also likely means that Jordan Love simply doesn't hit the ground running. However, I do have enough belief in the Packers' evaluation of quarterbacks given the franchise's long history at the position from Favre to Rodger to now Love that he has the tools to succeed, it just might come with a learning curve. So a worst-case scenario sees him have to grow and find more success at the season goes on.
The final record in these Packers game-by-game predictions for the worst-case scenario in Green Bay ends up with 7-10. That's surely not good enough to get into the playoffs, even with the NFC being a very big question mark as a whole.
At the same time, though, my take on the Packers' worst-case scenario for the 2023 season isn't that they are left to hit a full reset with Jordan Love and big pieces on the roster. Instead, it's that they do indeed skip a beat but see signs for a bright future moving forward. Subsequently, Green Bay is still in a good spot moving forward, even if the 2023 campaign ends up not being fruitful in terms of garnering wins.
Worst-Case Scenario Record Prediction: 7-10