Rangers vs. Pirates prediction and odds for Monday, May 22

2023-05-22 22:28

The Texas Rangers played the Rockies at home over the weekend, but that didn’t stop them from scoring runs like the AL West leaders were at Coors Field, sweeping Colorado by scoring 31 runs in three games. Now, they’ll head to PNC Park for a three-game interleague series with the 24-22 P...

The Texas Rangers played the Rockies at home over the weekend, but that didn't stop them from scoring runs like the AL West leaders were at Coors Field, sweeping Colorado by scoring 31 runs in three games. Now, they'll head to PNC Park for a three-game interleague series with the 24-22 Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates have gone 4-14 after their 20-8 start and now sit at 24-22, but still only one game behind the Brewers for the top spot in the NL Central. For Game 1 the Rangers will hand the ball to Dane Dunning who is 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA. The Pirates will counter with 0-2 Luis Ortiz.

Let's get into the odds for the first game of this interleague series in Pittsburgh.

Rangers vs. Pirates odds, run line and total

Rangers vs. Pirates prediction and pick

Dane Dunning is a former top prospect who has had a shaky start to his MLB career, but in his age 28 season he's figuring things out. Though I'm not so certain how long this is going to last. He has a career low strikeouts per nine innings, 5.54 which gives him a strikeouts percentage in the 12th percentile of all pitchers and he also has a whiff rate that is 13th percentile. He hasn't allowed many walks at all, but he's also gotten lucky with a .234 batting average on balls in play.

Dunning's BABIP is much lower than the league average. His team's offense is also much better than the league average and that means they could have a big day against Ortiz. Ortiz has a WHIP of 2.375 which means he has runners on base all day long. That's rough against Texas who has a league best .309 average with runners on base and an .899 OPS. They're even scarier with runners in scoring position, hitting .339 with a .934 OPS.

The Rangers will do damage against Ortiz who has allowed more walks than he has strikeouts, and though regression is coming Dunning's way at some point I still love Texas in this one. I'd also give the over a look because the Rangers will do some serious damage against the Pittsburgh staff.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change